Roy Morgan Update July 23, 2024: ALP Support down, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update – in a week that saw tax cuts making their way into Australians’ pockets, and widespread allegations of corruption and potential criminality in the CFMEU), the economic sentiment improved, but did not translate into support for the ALP Government.

If a Federal Election were held now the Coalition is ahead of the ALP, 51% to 49%, on a two-party preferred basis, and would be favoured to form a minority government with the support of minor parties and independents.
The Coalition has edged further ahead as allegations, first aired by investigative journalists on current affairs show 60 Minutes, have engulfed the CFMEU and centred on the state of Victoria.
Even before the allegations became public the high-profile head of the Victorian branch of the CFMEU, John Setka, was forced to resign his position.
The allegations dented support for Labor in Victoria where the swing away from Labor to the Coalition was strongest (+2% on a two-party preferred basis).
We’ll see in a minute, Consumer Confidence is also now lower in Victoria than any other state.

The Coalition increased its primary vote lead over the ALP with support up 2% to 39.5% and well ahead of the ALP on 31.5%. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 13%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 5%, support for Other Parties dropped 1.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents dropped 1.5% to 7.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence jumped significantly, up 8 points to 82 – its highest level for nearly six months – but still well below the neutral level of 100.
The increase followed the Stage 3 tax cuts in early July that have now flowed through to the majority of income taxpayers.
And now a reduced majority of 52.5% of Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction (down 3.5% this week), 34.5% (up 4.5%), say the country is heading in the right direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased substantially, up 5.9 points to 84.4.
This is the biggest weekly increase for over three years and was broad-based with all five questions increasing significantly.
Again, the increase followed the Stage 3 tax cuts in early July that have now flowed through to the majority of income taxpayers.
However, longer-term, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 77 weeks below the level of 85 – almost 18 months.

This week Inflation Expectations decreased 0.1% to 5.0%.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations indicator now shows Australians expect annual inflation to be 5.0% per annum over the next two years.
Longer-term, Inflation Expectations have been remarkably stable this year and have stayed within a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3% for 33 weeks since early December.

And now to the latest figures on mortgage stress.
The latest Roy Morgan ‘mortgage stress’ figures show an increase of 88,000 in June to 1,602,000 mortgage holders – 30.3% of all Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress.
Despite the increase, the level of mortgage stress remains lower than it was earlier in the year.