Roy Morgan Update February 25, 2025: ALP Federal Vote and Consumer Confidence up after Interest Rate Cut

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

Last week’s Reserve Bank decision to cut interest rates has had a big and highly predictable impact on the key weekly indicators:

Inflation Expectations DOWN, Consumer Confidence UP, Government Confidence UP, and…

The Roy Morgan Poll shows a clear boost for the Albanese Government with the ALP now on 51% (up 2.5%) ahead of the Coalition on 49% on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP’s narrow lead means if a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament and the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government – although the ALP would be favoured.

The swing was consistent across the board with both men (+2.5%) and women (+3.5%) moving to the ALP.

Importantly, there were swings to the ALP in the largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia – the States at which the upcoming Federal election will be decided.

Last week was definitely positive for the Albanese Government, but the question going forward is whether the Government can maintain that momentum or the boost in support will prove short-lived.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) improved for a second straight week, up 5 points to 85, now at its highest for over a year since January 2024.

However, almost half of Australians still say the country is going in the wrong direction (49.5%), while only 34.5% say the country is heading in the right direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence reacted positively to the Reserve Bank’s decision, jumping 4.7 points to 89.8.

The increase was driven by Australian views about their own personal finances which improved markedly this week after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates for the first time in four years.

Consumer Confidence is now at its highest since May 2022 – the month of the last Federal Election.

Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank’s decision was most keenly felt by People Paying Off Their Home – their Consumer Confidence jumped by 10.7 points to 90.9 – and is now the highest of any of the three key housing groups.

The Consumer Confidence of Renters increased 4 points to 87.9 while for Home Owners (those without a mortgage), Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged, even slightly down, at 90.5.

Inflation Expectations had a big reaction to the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates – dropping by a significant 0.7% to 4.2% over each of the next two years.

Inflation Expectations are now at their lowest since August 2021 mid-pandemic – and the immediate reaction to the interest rate cuts suggests that many Australians are now confident inflation pressures in the economy are lessening.

Given the predictable response to the Reserve Bank interest rate cuts, it’s clear that the timing of any future rate cuts is a delicate decision – socially, economically, and politically.

New data from Roy Morgan on health insurance shows that despite rising cost-of-living pressures, most Australians are maintaining private health insurance rather than opting out, but a significant number are switching providers – or at least looking around.

As of December 2024, over half of Australians aged 14+ (57.2%) have private health insurance – equivalent to approximately 12.9 million people. This represents steady growth over the past five years, rising from 52.9% in December 2020 to 57.2% in December 2024.

The increasing cost of living is putting pressure on family budgets and driving more people to look around for the best offer, although most are still deciding to renew their policies with the same company.

In the year to December 2024, 6.8% of private health insurance policies switched to another company, and 17.9% were renewed after approaching another company.

Among health insurers, HCF, Bupa, and ahm have been the biggest winners from customer switching in the past 12 months, benefiting from their reputation for competitive pricing:

The yellow bar in the chart indicates the net result for each of the health insurance providers.

•       HCF: had a net increase of 40,000.

•       Bupa: had a net increase of 24,000.

•       ahm: achieved a net increase of 24,000.

In contrast, Medibank Private saw the largest customer loss due to switching with a net loss of 47,000 customers.