Roy Morgan Update December 17, 2024: ALP support unchanged, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations

In this week's update, Julian McCrann, Roy Morgan Poll Manager, presents the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

My name is Julian McCrann and I’m the manager of the Roy Morgan Poll stepping in today for Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine who is unavailable.

Michele will be back to present the Roy Morgan weekly update in the new year as we gear up for a Federal Election in the next few months.

The Coalition maintained its two-party preferred lead this week with the L-NP on 52%, unchanged from a week ago, clearly ahead of the ALP on 48% as we head into the Christmas break.

If a Federal Election were held now the result would likely be a Coalition Government with a slim majority.

Despite no change on a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition did gain on its primary vote – up 3% to 41% - the highest it has been since the last election.

All other parties lost support. ALP support was down 0.5% to 27.5%, Greens support was down 0.5% to 12.5% and support for One Nation dipped 1.5% to 5%.

A further 3.5% support Other minor parties and 10.5% support Independents.

There were several issues driving the improved performance for the Coalition.

During the last week the debate over the torching of a Melbourne synagogue dominated media headlines and many accused Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of being slow to respond and slow to criticise the attack whereas the Coalition was on the front foot early and calling out the horrendous act.

There was also a decision by the Reserve Bank to leave interest rates unchanged again which disappointed many mortgage holders struggling with the cost of living and the Coalition announced its plans for nuclear energy which they say will reduce energy costs long-term.

The other key indicators were also poor this week.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) dropped 1 point to 71.5.

This is well below the neutral level of 100.

A clear majority (57.5%) of Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction, while only 29% say the country is heading in the right direction.

Consumer Confidence was also down this week, following the Black Friday sales period, and the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.6 points to 83.9 this week.

This week’s decline was driven by weakness in relation to buying household items following the end of the Black Friday sales period.

Now only 25% (down 5%) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy major household items’ while 47% (up 3%) say it is a ‘bad time to buy’ – a net movement of negative 8% points.

Inflation Expectations continued to bounce around and this week increased 0.3% to 4.8%.

Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 4.8% over the next two years.

And finally today a look at one of Australia’s A-League and which clubs have the largest support.

The latest Roy Morgan figures on the A-League show more people than ever – over 4 million Australians – now support an A-League club – up 50,000 from a year ago and up a stunning 1.4 million over the last four years since 2020.

Once again it is Sydney FC which has emerged as the most widely supported A-League club with 761,000 supporters, virtually unchanged on a year ago.

In second place are their northern counterparts the Brisbane Roar with 642,000 supporters ahead of the Melbourne Victory with 588,000 supporters.