Roy Morgan Update April 23, 2025: ALP Support up, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

And the third week of the ‘Official’ Federal Election campaign has been won by Labor – that’s three weekly wins in a row for the Albanese Government with early voting already underway this week.

In the first day of early voting over 500,000 Australians had already voted.

The Roy Morgan Poll shows the ALP on 55.5% on a two-party preferred basis, up 1% from a week ago, well ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 45.5%.

Since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the election two-party preferred support for the ALP is up by 2.5% points.

If the Federal Election had been held last weekend the Albanese ALP Government would have been returned with an increased majority.

Although the Australian Dollar and the ASX200 both recovered last week, no one would deny these are uncertain times. In times of uncertainty, we usually see voters swing towards incumbent governments – and this reaction has been seen in recent weeks with increasing support for the Albanese Government.

However, there are ‘sleeper issues’ that can cause unpredictable results between now and election day including US President Donald Trump – and the uncertainty he brings to the global economy, and the increasingly prominent issue of crime.

Over the last few days there were horrific crimes – related to drugs and domestic violence – committed in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria which led to people being shot and killed in all three States over the Easter weekend – and an increasingly concerned public.

The impact of crime on a Federal Election is hard to judge given the issue is primarily a state-based issue, but Liberal Leader Peter Dutton’s image as a former policeman who has dealt with drugs and domestic violence gives the Coalition the opportunity to highlight the issue and boost their support in the next two weeks as voters make up their minds.

This was the first week in which all candidates for the Federal Election were known and support for both major parties increased at the expense of Independents and Other Parties.

Primary support for the ALP increased 2.5% to 34.5% and is now just ahead of the Coalition on 34%, up 0.5%. This is the first time the ALP has led the Coalition on primary support since October 2023.

As recently as early March the Coalition was over 10% points ahead of the ALP on primary support.

Support for the Greens was unchanged at a six-month high of 14.5% (boosting the ALP’s two-party preferred result) and support for One Nation was unchanged at 6%.

As indicated, the declaration of candidates meant a decline in support for Independents, down 2.5% to 7.5% with Independent candidates not running in all 150 seats.

There was also a slight decline in support for Other Parties, down 0.5% to 3.5%, with many minor parties running in only a handful of seats.

For instance, support for Clive Palmer’s new ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ Party was at 0.5% this week, down 0.5% from a week ago.

Trumpet of Patriots is running in only two-thirds of available seats (100/150).

This week’s Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) was unchanged at 86 – still a low number below the neutral level of 100, but the equal highest figure for over 18 months since September 2023.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, has reacted positively to the recovery in the ASX 200 and the Australian Dollar last week, up 1.3 points to 85.5.

The two indicators to improve the most related to the Australian economy’s performance over the next year and people’s expectations for personal finances in a year’s time.

However, Inflation Expectations increased 0.3% to 4.9% this week.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.9% over each of the next two years.

And now to Mortgage Stress – an indicator closely tied to the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decisions.

The latest Roy Morgan estimates show mortgage stress down in March following the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates in mid-February for the first time since November 2020.

In March, an estimated 1.45 million Australians, or 26.5% of all Australians with a mortgage, were ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress – down 1.2% from February.

This was the second straight monthly decline after the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut.