Roy Morgan Update April 15, 2025: ALP Support up, Consumer Confidence and Unemployment

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Unemployment.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

And the second week of the ‘Official’ Federal Election campaign has been won by Labor.

The Roy Morgan Poll shows the ALP on 54.5% on a two-party preferred basis, up 1% from a week ago, well ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 45.5%.

If the Federal Election had been held last weekend the Albanese ALP Government would have been returned with an increased majority.

There are several factors driving the vote – perhaps the biggest is President Donald Trump’s worldwide tariff announcement (which he called “Liberation Day”).

The tariff announcement caused extreme market upheaval throughout last week. The ASX200 plunged early in the week before recovering most of its losses by the end of the week, and the Australian Dollar was on a similar roller-coaster ride.

In times of uncertainty, we usually see voters swing towards incumbent governments – and this reaction has been seen in recent weeks with increasing support for the Albanese Government – at least at a two-party preferred level.

Peter Dutton and the Coalition created their own uncertainty with their policy to cut the cost of the public service and improve productivity by sacking over 40,000 public servants and forcing Federal Public Servants to work from the office – Opposition Leader Peter Dutton candidly said the Coalition made a mistake with this policy and ditched it early last week.

The impact of the latest policies released by the Government and Opposition at their official campaign launches on Sunday – especially policies to help First Home Buyers into the property market – will be reflected in next week’s Roy Morgan Poll.

Importantly, it is vital to remember that early voting starts in under a week – straight after Easter.

Primary support for the major parties was little changed with the Coalition up 0.5% to 33.5% and the ALP down 0.5% to 32%.

The Greens, often criticised for being focused on esoteric, environmental and global, big picture issues, while people struggle with the cost of living, saw their highest vote for 6 months after focusing on free education and free dental care - support for the Greens increased 1% to 14.5%

Support for One Nation was unchanged at 6%, Other Parties dropped 2% to 4% (Note: Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ Party received 1% support, down 0.5% from a week ago), while support for Independents increased 1% to 10%.

In a further spot of good news for the Albanese Government, this week’s Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) increased 5 points to 86 – still a low number below the neutral level of 100, but the highest figure for over 18 months since September 2023.

A look at Roy Morgan Government Confidence by Voting Intentions reveals some stark differences.

In contrast to others, ALP voters are very much in positive territory with a Government Confidence of 136.5 (60.5% say the country is going in the ‘Right Direction’ compared to 24% for the ‘Wrong Direction’).

This compares to Government Confidence of only 54.5 for L-NP Coalition voters (Only 19% say the country is going in the ‘Right Direction’ compared to 64.5% for the ’Wrong Direction’.

Interestingly, it is voters of “Other Parties” – which includes Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots – with the lowest Government Confidence at only 38.5.

Only 10% of these people say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 71.5% who say the ‘wrong direction’.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, has clearly reacted negatively to the events of last week and was down 2.6 points to 84.2 after a week of extreme market volatility.

The two indicators to weaken most related to – the Australian economy’s performance over the next year and people’s expectations for personal finances in a year’s time.

Inflation Expectations were unchanged at 4.6% this week – remaining below the long-term average.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.6% over each of the next two years.

Now to employment and unemployment – the measure that really matters – especially to those who are unemployed.

‘Real Unemployment’ in March was down 1.3% on a month ago, to 10.2%, - so, an estimated 1.6 million Australians are unemployed.

There were two drivers of the decrease in unemployment, increases in people employed - full-time employment (up 29,000) and part-time employment (up 34,000),

but the largest factor was the reduction in the workforce with 167,000 Australians previously looking for work now out of the workforce – i.e., they stopped looking for work.

In essence, although there were more jobs, there weren’t enough for all the people who were looking a month ago.

And finally today to a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll on Iconic Australian Sporting Anthems – and the results are conclusive – ‘Up There Cazaly’ by Mike Brady – a song about an iconic Australian Footballer named Roy – is Australia’s most iconic sporting anthem – by far.

When asked to name an Iconic Australian Sporting Anthem, nearly three-in-ten Australians, 28%, named ‘Up There Cazaly’– and most importantly this was an UNPROMPTED answer.

‘Up There Cazaly’ was almost three times as popular as Men At Work’s ‘Down Under’ at 11%, and over three times as popular as Banjo Paterson’s ‘Waltzing Matilda’ – often played at Australian Rugby Union matches – at 9%.