NZ Vote: Potential National/Act NZ (47.5%) coalition retains a clear lead over Labour/Greens (44%) in April

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition increasing by 0.5% points to 47.5% in April, clearly ahead of Labour/Greens on 44%, up 1.5% points. This continues to be the equal highest level of support for National since January 2020.

Support for National was down 0.5% points at 37.5% in April but fellow right-leaning party Act NZ increased support by 1% point to 10%. Support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 1.5%.

Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government increased by 1.5% points to 44% in April – the first increase in support for the Government for seven months since September 2021. Support for Labour increased 1.5% points to 33.5% while support for the Greens was unchanged at 10.5%.

A minority of 7% of electors (down 1.5% points) support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First down 1.5% points to 2.5%, The Opportunities Party up 0.5% points to 2% and support for the New Conservative Party unchanged at 0.5% in April.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 918 electors during April. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4.5%, down 2% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 6pts to 93.5 in April

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 6pts in April 93.5. Despite the increase, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 42.5pts from a year ago in April 2021 and down 31.5pts since September 2021.

In April, 43% (up 4% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 49.5% (down 2% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand increased 6.5pts to 84.4 and is still below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 90.7 on April 25 - May 1, 2022.

Women continue to favour Labour/Greens while men firmly support National and Act NZSupport for the Labour/ Greens coalition remains strong amongst women. Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is at 54.5% for women aged 18-49 compared to only 38.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 50+ support is at 49.5% for the Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 43.5% for National/ Act NZ.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of 2% of women including 3% of women aged 18-49 and 1.5% of women aged 50+.

There is a stark difference for men with 54% supporting National or Act NZ. In March 49% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to 40% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 61.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 30% supporting Labour/ Greens.The Maori Party attracts only 0.5% support from men including 0.5% support of men aged 50+ but no support from men aged 18-49.
Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. One-in-five women aged 18-49 (20%) and one-in-eight men aged 18-49 (12.5%) support the Greens compared to only 5% of women aged 50+ and just 4% of men aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating improved in April – up 6pts to 93.5The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased for both genders in April and is now back above the neutral level of 100 for women at 100.5, up 6.5pts on a week ago. There was a similar improvement among men, although the Rating remains significantly lower, up 5.5pts to 85.5.
Amongst women there are now 46.5% who say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 46% that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Now nearly two-fifths of men, 38.5%, say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to a clear majority of 53% that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is highest for women aged 50+ at 103 while for women aged 18-49 it is slightly lower at 98. There is a larger difference for men with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of 93.5 and only 76.5 for men aged 50+.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the potential National/Act NZ coalition (47.5%) government has largely held its lead over the governing Labour/Greens government (44%) in April as the country begins to open up to the world following the pandemic:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll has little movement for the major parties with New Zealand beginning the process of re-opening its borders to international travellers during April with Australian travellers allowed into the country for the last three weeks.

“The international border has now re-opened to residents of visa-waiver countries such as the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea as the country slowly moves past the pandemic restrictions that kept the country one of the safest in the world over the last two years.

“Support for National was down 0.5% points at 37.5% in April and fellow right-leaning party Act NZ increased its support 1% point to 10% - its first increase in support so far this year. As a potential governing coalition National/Act NZ now have 47.5% of the vote.

“In comparison, support for the Labour/ Greens coalition was up 1.5% points to 44%. The increase in support was for Labour, which increased 1.5% points to 33.5% - their first increase in support for over six months since September 2021 while Greens support was unchanged at 10.5%.

“There was positive news for the Labour-Greens government with two key indicators moving in the right direction in April, although both remain in negative territory below the neutral level of 100. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 6pts to 93.5 while the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating was up 6.5pts to 84.4. This is the first time both indicators have improved in the same month for a year since April 2021.

“Perhaps the biggest unknown heading towards next year’s New Zealand Election is whether the ‘gender split’ between the two sides of politics will remain. The trends in April continue to show a huge gap between the political views of women and men.

“In April a clear majority of 54.5% of men support a National/ Act NZ coalition compared to only 35% that support Labour/ Greens – a gap of 19.5% points. In comparison, 52% of women support Labour/ Greens compared to 41% that support National/ Act NZ – a gap of 11% points.

“At the moment the ‘gender gap’ is working in favour of National/ Act NZ although with the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the country slowly re-opening to the world, there are new issues such as inflation and increasing interest rates that are now front and centre.

“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has now increased interest rates four times since late last year by a total of 1.25% points to 1.50%. Even so, the latest inflation figures for the March quarter 2022 showed annual inflation at 6.9% - its highest for over 30 years. This compares to an annual rate of 5.1% ‘across the ditch’ in Australia and suggests there are more interest rate rises to come over the next few months.

“A high inflation rate and an extended cycle of higher interest rates is a new challenge for the government of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and looks set to be the defining issue over the next 18 months heading into next year’s election.”New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – April 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – April 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – April 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

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