NZ Parliamentary Opposition: National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party (47%) ahead of Labour/ Greens (46.5%) for the first time
• Act NZ is the most popular party for men aged 18-49
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 3.5% points to 46.5% in November as support for the Labour Party dropped 3.5% points to 36%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 10.5%. This is the lowest level of support for Labour since the election of the Jacinda Ardern-led Government in October 2017 with 36.9% of the vote.
For the first time since the election support for the Parliamentary Opposition National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party has now overtaken the Government at 47% in November, up 3% points since October. However, it is worth noting there is no formal agreement between these three opposition parties.
Support rose for all three opposition parties with National up 0.5% points to 26.5%, Act NZ up 1.5% points to a new record high of 17.5% and support for the Maori Party hitting its highest for over five years since January 2016, up 1% point to 3%.
New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland was in an extended lockdown throughout the month of November, and it is only this week that bars, restaurants and gyms in the city are re-opening after being closed for more than three months.
The big political event in November came right at the end of the month when National Leader Judith Collins lost a vote of no confidence last week and lost the leadership of the party.
Despite the combined support of National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party overtaking Labour/ Greens for the first time in November this has not been because of an increase in support for National. Since last year’s NZ Election National support has increased by 0.9% points while support for Act NZ has more than doubled, up by 9.9% points to 17.5%.
A small minority of 6.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First unchanged at 2.5%, The Opportunities Party up 0.5% points to 1.5% and support for the New Conservative Party down 0.5% points to 1% in November.This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 951 electors during November. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5.5%, up 1.5% points, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 8pts to 101.5 in November – the lowest since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister four years ago in late 2017
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 8pts in November to 101.5 to be at its lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office four years ago in October 2017. The drop in Government Confidence came after the Auckland lockdown was extended throughout November.
In November only 46% (down 2% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 44.5% (up 6% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down by 1.4pts to 96.6 in November and is below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 106.0 on November 28/29, 2021 as restrictions in Australia ease and international travel to and from the country resumed.
Women favour Labour while men are far more likely to support Act NZ
Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition (46.5%) and the Parliamentary Opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party (47%) is hard to split in November, but there continue to be key gender differences that show each party has a different base of support when considered by gender and age.
Support for Labour remains high amongst Women at 43.5% - over 15% points ahead of National (26.5%). Women aged 18-49 (43.5%) and 50+ (43.5%) are equally supportive of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party.
Support for their coalition partner the Greens is heavily related to age. An impressive 15.5% of women aged 18-49, and men aged 18-49, support the Greens. However, this support drops off substantially for older voters with only 4% of women aged 50+ and 6% of men aged 50+ supporting the Greens.
The story is perhaps even more interesting for men. Support amongst men is split fairly evenly between Labour (28%), National (27%) and Act NZ (25%) with 20% of men supporting other parties.
For younger men Act NZ is the most widely supported party with nearly a third of men aged 18-49 (30%) supporting the David Seymour-led party. In second place is Labour on 23.5% just ahead of National on 21.5%.
In contrast, for older men aged 50+, their support is split almost equally between National (33.5%) and Labour (33%). Under a fifth of older men support Act NZ (19%).
The Maori Party is heavily reliant on women aged 18-49. More younger women support the Maori Party (7.5%) than support Act NZ (6.5%). Support for the Maori Party is at 2% or less for all other gender and age groups analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
|
|
Total |
Women |
Men |
||||
|
|
All |
18-49 |
50+ |
All |
18-49 |
50+ |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Labour |
36 |
43.5 |
43.5 |
43.5 |
28 |
23.5 |
33 |
|
Greens |
10.5 |
10.5 |
15.5 |
4 |
11 |
15.5 |
6 |
|
Labour/ Greens |
46.5 |
54 |
59 |
47.5 |
39 |
39 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National |
26.5 |
26.5 |
20.5 |
33 |
27 |
21.5 |
33.5 |
|
Act NZ |
17.5 |
10 |
6.5 |
14.5 |
25 |
30 |
19 |
|
Maori Party |
3 |
4 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
|
National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party |
47 |
40.5 |
34.5 |
48 |
53.5 |
53 |
54.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Others |
6.5 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
8 |
6.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating |
|||||||
|
Right Direction |
46 |
49.5 |
56 |
42.5 |
42 |
41.5 |
43 |
|
Wrong Direction |
44.5 |
38.5 |
34 |
43 |
51 |
52.5 |
49 |
|
Government Confidence Rating |
101.5 |
111 |
122 |
99.5 |
91 |
89 |
94 |
|
Can’t say |
9.5 |
12 |
10 |
14.5 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 111 for Women compared to only 91 for men
The party support trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which are far more positive for younger women than anyone else.
The overall results for the genders show that 49.5% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 42% of men. Only 38.5% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to a majority of 51% of men.
Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 111 for women compared to only 91 for men – a gap of 20 points.
A large majority of 56% of young women aged 18-49 say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 34% that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 122 for women aged 18-49.
However, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is in negative territory below the level of 100 for women aged 50+ (99.5), men aged 50+ (94) and is lowest of all for men aged 18-49 (89).
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the long honeymoon for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has finally ended with support for Labour crashing to 36%, below their level of support at the 2017 New Zealand Election (36.9%) for the first time:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support continuing to drop for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party, down 3.5% points from October 2021, and now down 14% points from last year’s New Zealand Election to 36%. Support for coalition partners the Greens was unchanged at 10.5% in November.
“The combined support for the Labour-led Government dropped 3.5% points to 46.5%, the lowest it has been since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017. Support for the Labour-led Government is now behind the Parliamentary Opposition of National, Act NZ and the Maori Party on 47% (up 3% points) for the first time.
“The long lockdown of New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland extended throughout the month of November and with international borders continuing to remain closed it appears these measures are finally wearing thin for New Zealanders. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 8pts to 101.5 in November – the lowest level for this index for well over thirteen years since July 2008 (91.5) during the middle of the Global Financial Crisis.
“The big improver during the last year has been Act NZ which has more than doubled its support from 7.6% at last year’s election to a record high of 17.5% in November. The rise in support for Act NZ has come while support for National has stagnated during the last year and is now at 26.5%, an increase of less than 1% point since the election.
“Former National leader Judith Collins paid the price for failing to improve National’s support and was forced out of the leadership after losing a no confidence motion last week. New leader Christopher Luxon was elected unopposed this week to become the new leader of National. Luxon is the former CEO of Air New Zealand (2012-19) and only entered Parliament at last year’s election.
“Luxon has a big task ahead of him to regrow the National brand and increase its support. In his age group of men aged 50+ National is already the most widely supported party with 33.5% of the vote, but National trails badly in younger demographics”
“Only 21.5% of men aged 18-49 support National, behind both Labour (23.5%) and Act NZ (30%). Amongst young women aged 18-49 National is even further behind with the support of only 20.5% of this age group – less than half the support of Labour (43.5%).
“It remains to be seen if Luxon, aged 51, can regain the support of these younger voters aged 18-49 who have drifted to other parties over the last few years. Amongst this age group Labour (33.5%) is over 10% points ahead of National (21%) with Act NZ (18.5%) and the Greens (15.5%) close behind.”
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 930.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 930.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 930.
Voting Intention Summary
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020 General Election:
|
PARTY VOTE |
Labour |
Green Party* |
National |
ACT NZ |
Maori Party** |
TOP** |
NZ First |
Other |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
ELECTIONS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
Labour Party-led Government (Labour, Greens) |
Parliamentary |
|
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* |
57.87 |
34.33 |
|
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL |
|
|
|
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament, |
||
|
November 2020 |
56.5 |
37 |
|
December 2020 |
54.5 |
40 |
|
2021 |
|
|
|
January 2021 |
58.5 |
36 |
|
February 2021 |
58.5 |
37.5 |
|
March 2021 |
57.5 |
35 |
|
April 2021 |
55 |
41 |
|
May 2021 |
56 |
39 |
|
June 2021 |
51 |
43.5 |
|
July 2021 |
49.5 |
44.5 |
|
August 2021 |
51.5 |
40.5 |
|
September 2021 |
55 |
41 |
|
October 2021 |
50 |
44 |
|
November 2021 |
46.5 |
47 |
*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
Related Findings
