In New Zealand: New Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon boosts support for National to 35%; now ahead of Labour on 33%

Support for National has now overtaken Labour for the first time since 2019

New Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon has again boosted support for the main Opposition National in only his second month in charge with support rising 3.5% points to 35% in January. Support for National has now increased 8.5% points since Luxon took over the leadership at the end of November 2021 and has now overtaken Labour for the first time since October 2019.

Support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government is now at 48.5% and clearly ahead of the current Labour/ Greens government of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on 43.5%.

Although support for National increased for a fourth straight month the increase in January came at the expense of fellow right-leaning party Act NZ for which support fell 5% points to 13.5% to its lowest since August 2021. Support for the Maori Party increased 1.5% points to 2.5%.

In contrast, support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 0.5% points to 43.5% in January – the fourth straight month of declines for the government. Labour support dropped 2.5% points to only 33% to the lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took office in late 2017 while support for the Greens increased 2% points to 10.5%.

A small minority of 5.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First up 0.5% points to 2.5%, The Opportunities Party up 0.5% points to 1.5% and support for the New Conservative Party up 0.5% points to 1% in January.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 951 electors during January. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 7%, up 1% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumps 8.5pts to 106.5 in January

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 8.5pts in January to 106.5 to return to positive territory after one month below the neutral level for 100.

Although it is unusual to see the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increase when support for the governing parties is in decline the rise in January comes after a significant decline during the last year, and even just the last few months.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now down 46.5pts from a year ago in January 2021 (153) and down 18.5pts from just September 2021 (125). These declines match a softening in support for the Government during this period and the small rise in January is likely closely related to the course of the pandemic, and opening up, rather than Government policy changes in January. 

In January, 48.5% (up 6% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 42% (down 2.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 0.6pts to 97.7 and is now below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 99.9 on Jan. 31 – Feb. 6, 2022 which is now slowly recovering after a breakout of the highly contagious Omicron variant during January.

Women favour Labour/Greens while men firmly support National and Act NZ

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition remains strong amongst women. Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is at 54.5% for women aged 50+ compared to only 41% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 support is at 50% for the Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 41.5% for National/ Act NZ.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of 3.5% of women although their support is concentrated amongst younger women aged 18-49 at 7%.

There is a stark difference for men with 56.5% supporting National or Act NZ. In January 56.5% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to only 31.5% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 56.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 37% supporting Labour/ Greens.
Although National is now the preferred party of men of all ages there is a clear age divide with men of different ages when it comes to their levels of support for the various parties.

For men aged 18-49 support for National (34.5%) is now clearly in first place ahead of Act NZ (22%) although there is almost a tie for third place between Labour (16%) and the Greens (15.5%).

In contrast, for men aged 50+ support is significantly higher for the traditional major parties with nearly half of this group supporting National (46%) ahead of Labour (32%). Support for Act NZ is at only 10.5%, less than half the support they have from younger men, while only 5% of older men support the Greens.

The Maori Party attracts only 1% support from men of all ages.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 114.5 for Women compared to 99 for men

The party support trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which are far more positive for women than men.

The overall results for the genders show that a slim majority of 52.5% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 44.5% of men. In contrast only 38% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to nearly half of men (45.5%).

Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 114.5 for women compared to only 99 for men – a gap of over 15 points.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is highest for women aged 50+ at 119 while for women aged 18-49 it is still clearly in positive territory at 110. There is less difference for men with a neutral Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 100 for men aged 18-49 and a slightly negative rating of 97 for men aged 50+ - the only cohort with a rating below the neutral level of 100. 

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says new Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon’s ‘honeymoon’ is continuing with support for National rising 3.5% points to 35% and now up 8.5% points in only two months since Luxon took over at the end of November 2021:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 932.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 932.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 932.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020 General Election:

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.