GREAT HOUSE is the hot tip to win the 2021 MELBOURNE CUP at the enticing odds of 20 to 1
Melbourne Cup Selections by Hugh Wallace-Smith
No. 23 Great House......No 22 Floating Artist.....No...21 Tralee Rose....No....1 Twilight Payment....No 2 Incentivise....No 12 Persan.
For best results I suggest putting these six horses into a Box First Four, Box Trifecta & Box Quinella - Numbers: 1, 2, 12, 21, 22 & 23.
First...23. Great House
He won the Newcastle Cup, ran 5th in the Caulfield Cup then won the Hotham Handicap impressively on Derby Day. . He drops from 56.5 kg yesterday to 50 kg, he is tough, he has a staying pedigree and has beaten the handicapper just as Brew did when he won in 2000.
Second...22. Floating Artist
Was a great second in the MV Cup just like Pirate of Penzance was in 2015. and will be very competitive. Floating Artist has snuck into the Melbourne Cup field and is due for a change of luck ..The horse was bolting in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but didn’t find clear running until it was too late and he was still able to find the line strongly to finish a close second behind Lunar Flare. He is a stayer that is heading in the right direction and he does get in well at the weights.
Third...21. Tralee Rose
I always include the winner of the Geelong Cup and this year that is Tralee Rose by the successful sire Tavistock out of a Zabeel mare. She stamped herself as a stayer to watch with dominant wins in The Bagot and the Lord Reims Stakes and she has continued to improve this campaign. In the Geelong Cup she was able to tough out a narrow win. She may still need to improve to win a Melbourne Cup, but she is a fit mare that still has plenty of upside with only 52kg.
Fourth...1. Twilight Payment
Last year's winner is carrying only 2kg more than when he led all the way in 2020. His lead-up form in Ireland and England has been as good as it was last year. He failed to fire in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, but he returned to his best form to win the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes before he finished a gallant second behind Sonnyboyliston in the Irish St Leger. It takes an extremely good horse to win the Melbourne Cup in back-to-back years and Makybe Diva is the only top-weight to have won the race in the past 67 years, but Twilight Payment can’t be discounted.
Fifth...2. Incentivise
Fabulous horse won 9 in a row. Hardly got a single drop of staying blood in his veins. His father Shamus Award is by Snitzel out of a Success Express mare out of a Luskin Star mare each of them "brilliant short course speedsters. Shamus himself won up to 2000 m. Incentivise's mother is by another speedster Iglesia famous for being the sire of Written Tycoon out of a Semipalatinsk mare . This stallion did throw some good mile and a halfers although he stemmed from Noholme. Two shorter distance champions Kingston Town and Super Impose both tried the Melbourne Cup but just failed to stay with 57 kg. Only just mind you.
Sixth...12. Persan
He was fifth in the race last year and back for another go. Last start bowled along in front before his 4th in the G1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m, on a slow track; 5.5 lengths behind Incentivise . He looks set to peak here on Tuesday.
Have a great day
Hugh Wallace-Smith
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
