Australian unemployment drops to 8.1% in September as employment soars to a record high above 13.7 million
In September unemployment dropped 1.1% points to 8.1%, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment series data. The fall in unemployment was due to a significant increase in employment as both full-time and part-time employment increased.
Unemployment in September decreased 161,000 to 1.2 million Australians (8.1% of the workforce) although under-employment was up 233,000 to 1.56 million (10.5% of the workforce). Overall unemployment and under-employment increased 72,000 to 2.76 million (18.6% of the workforce).
- The workforce was up 57,000 in September driven by increasing employment:
The workforce in September was at a record high of 14,907,000 (up 57,000 from August) – comprised of a new record high 13,705,000 employed Australians (up 218,000) and 1,202,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 161,000).
- Employment up in September driven by increasing full-time and part-time employment:
Australian employment increased 218,000 to a new record high of 13,705,000 in September. The increase was driven by a rise in full-time employment, up 197,000 to 8,881,000, and an increase in part-time employment, up 21,000 to a new record high of 4,824,000.
1,202,000 Australians were unemployed (8.1% of the workforce) in September, a decline of 161,000 from August with fewer people looking for full-time work, down 57,000 to 535,000, and also fewer people looking for part-time work, down 104,000 to 667,000.
- Under-employment increased in September to a record high of 1.56 million:
In addition to the unemployed, 1.56 million Australians (10.5% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, up by 233,000 from August.
In total 2.76 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, up 72,000 on August.
Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in September 2022 there were more than 600,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+3% points) even though overall employment (13,487,000) is over 830,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.1% for September is more than double the ABS estimate for August 2022 of 3.5%. However, the ABS figures for August show there were 761,000 workers who worked fewer hours than usual due to illness, personal injury or sick leave compared to an average of 502,580 for the month of August over the five years from August 2017 – August 2021.
This difference, which can be put down to the Omicron variant of COVID-19, equates to a difference of 258,420 in August 2022 above the average for the month of August for the previous five years. If these workers are added to the 487,700 classified as unemployed this creates a total of 746,120 – equivalent to 5.3% of the workforce.
In addition, the ABS classifies 5.9% of the workforce (approximately 837,000 workers) as under-employed. Combining these figures adds to 1.58 million workers, around 11.2% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – September 2022. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the Australian workforce swelled to a new record high of over 14.9 million in September with increases in full-time and part-time employment driving an increase in overall employment to a new record high above 13.7 million:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for September show the workforce increasing by 57,000 to a record high of 14,907,000. There was good news driving the rise with employment up 218,000 to 13,705,000 driven by a large increase in full-time employment, up 197,000 to 8,881,000, and part-time employment increasing by 21,000 to a new record high of 4,824,000.
“The rise in employment led to a decrease in unemployment, down 161,000 to 1,202,000, 8.1% of the workforce. Of more concern was the large increase in under-employment, up 233,000 to a record high of 1,562,000, 10.5% of the workforce. Rises in part-time employment are often associated with increased under-employment as many people employed part-time would prefer to work more hours.
“The most recent wave of COVID-19 continued to rapidly decline during September with active cases of the virus dropping below 100,000 for the first time this year. The drop in active cases of COVID-19 has led to a further relaxing of restrictions with mandatory self-isolation due to end next week for anyone returning a positive test result for COVID-19.
“The full relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions this month will return the labour market to ‘normality’ with workers no longer forced to isolate for at least a week when returning a positive test. The millions of cases of COVID-19 reported this year in Australia has heavily distorted the employment situation as companies have been forced to hire additional workers to cover shortfalls due to the forced isolation of employees testing positive to COVID-19.
“One of the consequences of the isolation requirements is the increased hiring of part-time workers which hit record highs this year and led to a record level of under-employment above 1.5 million for the first time. Looking forward the month of November will be the first since February 2020 during which COVID-19 related restrictions will not have an impact on the labour market and other influences such as increasing inflation, and supply chain challenges, will be key factors driving employment outcomes.”
Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates
| Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’* |
Unemployed | Unemployed looking for | ‘Under-employed’* | |||||
| Full-time | Part-time | |||||||
| 2022 | ‘000 | % | ‘000 | % | ‘000 | ‘000 | ‘000 | % |
| Jan-Mar 2022 | 2,380 | 16.4 | 1,187 | 8.2 | 438 | 749 | 1,193 | 8.2 |
| Apr-Jun 2022 | 2,467 | 17.0 | 1,235 | 8.5 | 482 | 753 | 1,232 | 8.5 |
| Jul-Sep 2022 | 2,657 | 17.9 | 1,270 | 8.6 | 540 | 730 | 1,387 | 9.3 |
| Months | ||||||||
| August 2021 | 2,537 | 17.7 | 1,362 | 9.5 | 492 | 870 | 1,175 | 8.2 |
| September 2021 | 2,428 | 16.7 | 1,265 | 8.7 | 530 | 735 | 1,163 | 8.0 |
| October 2021 | 2,547 | 17.8 | 1,320 | 9.2 | 471 | 849 | 1,227 | 8.6 |
| November 2021 | 2,536 | 17.5 | 1,330 | 9.2 | 583 | 748 | 1,206 | 8.3 |
| December 2021 | 2,676 | 18.2 | 1,252 | 8.5 | 557 | 695 | 1,424 | 9.7 |
| January 2022 | 2,427 | 16.6 | 1,201 | 8.2 | 464 | 737 | 1,226 | 8.4 |
| February 2022 | 2,357 | 16.3 | 1,227 | 8.5 | 463 | 764 | 1,130 | 7.8 |
| March 2022 | 2,356 | 16.2 | 1,133 | 7.8 | 387 | 746 | 1,223 | 8.4 |
| April 2022 | 2,641 | 18.1 | 1,411 | 9.7 | 559 | 852 | 1,230 | 8.4 |
| May 2022 | 2,408 | 16.7 | 1,169 | 8.1 | 477 | 692 | 1,239 | 8.6 |
| June 2022 | 2,351 | 16.3 | 1,125 | 7.8 | 409 | 716 | 1,226 | 8.5 |
| July 2022 | 2,516 | 17.1 | 1,246 | 8.5 | 494 | 752 | 1,270 | 8.6 |
| August 2022 | 2,692 | 18.1 | 1,363 | 9.2 | 592 | 771 | 1,329 | 8.9 |
| September 2022 | 2,764 | 18.6 | 1,202 | 8.1 | 535 | 667 | 1,562 | 10.5 |
*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 858,633 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and September 2022 and includes 5,919 telephone and online interviews in September 2022. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles, including for Australians who are employed, unemployed, under-employed, employed part-time, employed full-time, retired, studying and many more.
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – September 2022. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – September 2022. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – September 2022. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in a 2012 letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
