ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 2.3pts to 120.7 in November
Consumer confidence lifted 3 points in November to 121, building on a 4 point rise last month.
- The Current Conditions Index rose 1 point (to 129), while the Future Conditions Index rose 3 points (to 115).
- The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item lifted 5 points to 41%, recovering last month’s fall.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose 3 points to 121 in November. The lift was driven by increased confidence about the economic outlook, but confidence that it’s a good time to buy a major item lifted as well.
Turning to the detail:
- Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation dipped 3 points, but remains above its average read for this year. A net 17% feel financially better off than a year ago.
- A net 26% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 3 points versus last month.
- A net 41% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, up 5.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook rose another 7 points to a net 4% expecting conditions to improve. The five-year outlook rose 5 points to +15%.
- Confidence rose in three of the five regions, most sharply in Canterbury. Wellington remains the most optimistic region and the South Island ex-Canterbury the least.
- House price inflation expectations lifted in all regions, most sharply in Wellington (up 1.5%pts to 4.3%). Auckland had the weakest lift (up 0.3%pts to 2.8%). The national average rose 0.7%pts to 3.7%, the strongest since July last year. General inflation expectations eased 0.2%pts to 3.1%.
The 3 point lift in consumer confidence took the series just above its historical average of 120. Confidence in both current and future conditions lifted, but not across all questions: fewer respondents reported that they currently feel better off compared to a year ago, and that they expect to be better off a year from now.
Things are pretty good for New Zealand households right now. They have a lot of debt, certainly, as the Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Report again pointed out this week, but jobs are pretty easy to find, there’s been some decent wage growth, and the housing market is lifting – not the slam dunk for consumer confidence that it used to be (figure 2) but still important.
Our confidence composite gauge combines business expectations and intentions with overall consumer sentiment to capture both the demand and supply side of the economy and give a better indicator for growth than either series alone.
The composite lifted sharply this month (figure 3), primarily due to the sharp lift in ANZBO indicators. It is consistent with our view that while the headwinds facing the economy are real, growth should bottom out around the 2% mark, as easing monetary conditions and remarkably resilient commodity prices (touch wood) feed through.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
