ALP increases its large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria in September: ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%

The ALP has increased its large election winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria with the ALP now on 60% (up 2% points since August) and well ahead of the L-NP on 40% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis less than two months before the State Election.

The latest result on the multi-mode Roy Morgan survey in September is in line with a Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll taken in mid-August showing a strong lead for the ALP: 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%.

If a Victorian State Election were held today the ALP would win the election easily according to the Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted during the month of September with a representative cross-section of 1,379 Victorian electors aged 18+ of whom 8% couldn’t say who they support.

Primary vote for the ALP up in September, but L-NP virtually unchanged

The ALP primary vote is 42% (up 5.5% points since August 2022) and has now moved even further ahead of the L-NP on 28% (down 1% point).

Despite the increase in support for the ALP in September, support for both major parties has dropped since the 2018 Victorian Election, down by 0.9% points for the ALP (42.9% in the 2018 Victorian Election) and down by 7.2% points for the L-NP (35.2% in the 2018 Victorian Election).

Support for the minor parties is up significantly since the 2018 Victorian Election – mirroring the trend seen at the recent Federal Election when 34.1% of Victorians voted for a minor party.

Overall, nearly a third of Victorians (30%) say they will vote for a minor party or independent in the State Election in November. The Greens attract the most support from these voters at 14.5% (up 0.5% points since August 2022) and a further 15.5% is spread between an array of minor parties and independents:

One Nation: 2%; Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP): 1%; Liberal Democrats: 1%; Animal Justice Party: 1%; Shooters, Fishers & Farmer’s Party: 0.5%; Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party: 0.5%; Legalise Cannabis Party: 0.5%; ‘Teal Independents’: 1%; Other Independents: 7%; and Other parties: 1%.

At the last Victorian State Election in 2018 a total of 11 parties were elected to the Victorian Parliament and three independents. Transport Matters secured a seat in the Victorian Legislative Council with only 0.6% of the State-wide vote.

Question 1:

“If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

Victorian Primary Voting Intention – Trends.

*August 2022 and September 2022 results are from Roy Morgan surveys done throughout the month of August via online and telephone interviewing. Previous results for September 2020 – August 11-13, 2022 are from Roy Morgan Snap SMS surveys.

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that the ALP Government of Premier Daniel Andrews has extended its lead over the Liberal-National Coalition and now leads by 20% points and is heading for an easy election victory next month:

This special Roy Morgan Poll multi-mode poll was conducted via telephone and online interviewing with a cross-section of 1,379 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted during the month of September 2022.

To purchase full demographic breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention, Approval or Disapproval of Premier Daniel Andrews, Better Premier between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions regarding concerns about a re-elected ALP Government led by Daniel Andrews or a potential Liberal-National Government led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy for $9,800 contact Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.
By Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 9224 5365.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.