ALP Government of Daniel Andrews set to win with a reduced majority as support for L-NP grows – but will the trend continue?

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The ALP on 55% (down 2% points since early November) has an election-winning lead over the L-NP Coalition on 45% (up 2% points), on a two-party preferred basis, according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll conducted over the last two days with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,195 Victorian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows a swing of 2.3% points away from the ALP since the 2018 Victorian Election in which the ALP on 57.3% defeated the L-NP on 42.7% - a near record margin of 14.6% points.

The latest figures from the Victorian Electoral Commission show that over 1 million electors, representing around one-third of likely Victorian electors, have already voted in this year’s election.

Primary voting intention for both major parties down since the 2018 Victorian Election

Primary vote support for the two major parties shows the ALP now at 38% (down 4.9% points from the 2018 Victorian Election) ahead of the L-NP on 32.5% (down 2.7% points).

Support for the Greens is at 12.5% (up 1.8% points) while total support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is now at 17% (up 5.8% points). Among the minor parties support for ‘Teal Independents’ is now at 4.5% while there is 1% support for Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, 0.5% support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and 11% support other minor parties and independents.

Approval for Premier Daniel Andrews down since early November, but Andrews has maintained his lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as preferred Premier

Now 57.5% (down 1% point since early November) of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, while 42.5% (up 1% point) disapprove.

Electors were then asked “Thinking of Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. In your opinion, who would make the ‘Better Premier’?”

Despite the small drop in approval for Premier Daniel Andrews in recent months the Premier has largely retained his large lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as the preferred Premier.

Now 65% (down 0.5% points) of electors say Daniel Andrews would make the ‘Better Premier’ compared to only 35% (up 0.5% points) who say Matthew Guy – a margin of 30% points in favour of the Premier.

A look at the gender breakdown on ‘Better Premier’ shows 67.5% (down 2% points) of women prefer Daniel Andrews compared to only 32.5% (up 2% points) supporting Matthew Guy while for men it is a narrower result with 62.5% (up 1% point) preferring Daniel Andrews compared to 37.5% (down 1% point) supporting Matthew Guy.

Victorian Election – Seats Distribution in the Legislative Assembly

A lower house majority of 45 seats is required to form Government. The Government of Premier Daniel Andrews can lose as many as 10 seats (net) from their current 55 and still retain a governing majority.

There are many seats on tight margins that will be closely contested at the Victorian State Election. If the Roy Morgan Poll result of a uniform swing of 2.3% points away from the ALP to the Liberal-National coalition is the outcome this would lead to five or six seats being lost to the Liberal Party.

In addition to seats contested between the two major parties there are several seats to watch involving the Greens and independents that will be seats to watch in the Victorian election.

Because many of these seat-by-seat contests are set to be between the Liberal Party and ‘Teal Independents’ even if the Liberal Party does pick up five or six seats from the ALP Government they may lose three or four seats to a ‘Teal Independent’ candidate elsewhere.

The seats below are those considered the most likely to change hands and are the key seats to watch.

ALP Seat Gain (1):

• From Retiring Independent (1): Morwell.

ALP Seat Losses (9):

• To Liberals (3): Bass, Bayswater & Nepean.
• New Seats (Notionally ALP to Liberals) (2): Ashwood & Pakenham.
• To Independents (2): Hawthorn & Melton.
• To Greens (2): Northcote & Richmond.

Net Losses for the ALP (-8).

Liberal Seat Gains (5):

• From ALP (3): Bass, Bayswater & Nepean.
• From New Seats – Notionally ALP (2): Ashwood & Pakenham.

Liberal Seat Losses (3):

• To Independents (3): Benambra, Brighton & Kew.

Net Gains for Liberals (2).

Greens Seat Gains (2):

• From ALP (2): Northcote & Richmond.

Net Gains for the Greens (2).

Independent Seat Gains (5):

• From Liberals (3): Benambra, Brighton & Kew.

Independent Seat Losses (1):

• To ALP (1): Morwell.

Net Gains for Independents (4).

As well as the 12 seats which are most at risk of changing hands listed above, there are 8 other seats to watch closely on Election night which are set to determine whether the ALP Government led by Premier Daniel Andrews is returned with a majority or not including:

• Three ALP-held seats South Barwon, Box Hill & Ringwood – all won by the ALP in close contests from the Liberals in 2018;
• Three Liberal seats also facing strong challenges from ‘Teal Independent’ candidates in Caulfield, Sandringham & Mornington;
• Two new seats which are marginally Liberal in Berwick & Glen Waverley.

Victorian two-party preferred results 2018-2022

Base: Victorian electors aged 18+. Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll in Sept. 2020, Nov. 11, 2021, Nov. 24, 2021, July 2, 2022, Aug. 13, 2022, Nov. 10, 2022 and Nov. 23, 2022. Roy Morgan multi-mode polls in Aug., Sept. & Oct. 2022.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,195 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Tuesday November 22, 2022, to Wednesday November 23, 2022.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann (03) 9224 5365 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.