ALP (50.5%) leads L-NP (49.5%) on a two-party preferred basis – no bounce for PM from G7 trip

ALP support is now 50.5% (down 0.5% points since early June) cf. L-NP on 49.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis following Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s overseas trip to the G7 in the United Kingdom according to the latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.

If a Federal Election were held now it would be too close to call with a higher than usual 7.5% of electors undecided about who they would vote for and with the real possibility Australia would have a hung Parliament for the first time in nearly a decade. Normally around 3-4% of electors can’t say who they would vote for.

Interviewing for the latest Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of June 12/13 & June 19/20, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,782 Australian electors using  a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP is up to 41.5% while ALP support drops to 34.5%

Primary support for the L-NP increased 1.5% points to 41.5% compared to the ALP on 34.5% (down 1% point). Greens support was up 0.5% points to 12%.

Support for One Nation was up 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others has dropped by 1.5% points to 8.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows ALP ahead in Victoria but the L-NP leads in NSW, QLD & WA

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP’s national two-party preferred lead is built upon a strong two-party preferred result in Victoria with the ALP 55% (up 1.5% points since early June) cf. L-NP 45% (down 1.5% points) after the State emerged from a short two-week lockdown in mid-June.

This result represents a swing of 1.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

However, the L-NP leads in Australia’s other three largest States. In NSW the L-NP holds a narrow two-party preferred lead of L-NP 51% (up 1.5% points since early June) cf. ALP 49% (down 1.5% points). Despite the L-NP’s lead this result represents a swing of 0.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP has its strongest result In Queensland with a large lead of L-NP 56% (up 3% points since early June) cf. ALP 44% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite this comfortable lead this represents a swing of 2.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In Western Australia the L-NP holds a two-party preferred lead of L-NP 52% (up 1% point since early June) cf. ALP 48% (down 1% point) which represents a swing to ALP of 3.6% points since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP holds a two-party preferred lead in the smaller States with the ALP 52% (up 2.5% points since early June) cf. L-NP 48% (down 2.5% points) in South Australia, a swing of 1.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and in Tasmania the ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% - a swing of 1% point to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence is virtually unchanged at 114 in mid-June

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 1pt from early June to 114. Now 49% (up 0.5% points since early June) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while slightly more than a third, 35% (down 0.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest Government Confidence Ratings by State paint a contrasting picture and is above average in the three States with majority support for the L-NP, and below average for those supporting the ALP.

Government Confidence in Western Australia is far higher than anywhere else with a very high 127.5 in mid-June – more than 10pts above the national figure.

Government Confidence is also above average in Queensland at 118 and NSW at 115.5 – although the latest outbreak of COVID-19 may dent this figure in the next few weeks.

In contrast, Government Confidence is below average in the three States in which a majority of electors support the ALP including Tasmania and South Australia (both 108.5) and Victoria on only 105 nearly 10pts below the national average.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s trip to the G7 Summit in Cornwall has provided only a small increase in support for the L-NP with the ALP 50.5% still leading the L-NP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis:

“Today’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP (50.5%) maintaining its narrow two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (49.5%) despite the media attention paid to the Prime Minister’s trip to meet foreign leaders in the UK last week. Prime Minister Morrison is now quarantining for two weeks in The Lodge.

“There is certainly plenty for the Prime Minister to think about during his stint in quarantine with Barnaby Joyce returning as National Party Leader after more than three years on the backbench and an outbreak of COVID-19 in NSW set to test that State’s ability to handle the virus without resorting to city-wide or state-wide lockdowns.

“The questions about Australia’s vaccine roll-out are also continuing to mount with only around 3% of Australians now fully vaccinated against COVID-19 compared to around 50% in the UK and USA and even 7% in nearest neighbour New Zealand.

“The slow vaccine rollout is being used by States such as Victoria to justify the recent two-week lockdown and also domestic State border closures in response to any outbreaks. The most recent example of this is the targeted border closures of several States to certain suburbs of Sydney in response to the current outbreak concentrated in Sydney’s Eastern suburbs.

“A look at the voting figures on a State-by-State basis continues to show the ALP riding high in Victoria and now leading by 10% points on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%. The ALP currently holds 21 seats in Victoria compared to 15 for the L-NP.

“The ALP’s strength in Victoria underlies their national competitiveness with the L-NP leading on a two-party preferred basis in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia in which the L-NP holds 55 seats compared to 35 for the ALP.

“At present all signs point to another very close election either later this year or early next year although there are obvious risks for the Morrison Government with the vaccine roll-out progressing at a slower rate than many had expected.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,782 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of June 12/13 & June 19/20, 2021. A higher than usual 7.5% of electors (up 2% points from early June) can’t say who they support.

For further information:

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Jun 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.