Roy Morgan Update January 29, 2025: Coalition would win a federal election, L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

This week the Coalition has maintained its two-party preferred lead on 52%, unchanged from a week ago, narrowly ahead of the ALP on 48%.

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a Coalition Government with a slim majority.

Despite no change on a two-party preferred basis, there were significant movements on primary voting intention.

On the right, or conservative side of politics, the Coalition lost support, down 1.5% to 40.5%, but One Nation picked up support, increasing 2% to 6%.

While on the left the ALP gained 1% to 29.5%, but the Greens dropped 1.5% to 11.5%.

Importantly as we head towards an election with the Greens defending four seats in the House of Representatives, this is the lowest level of support for the Greens for over a year since 2023.

Greens Leader Adam Bandt has been largely silent on the rising problem of antisemitism in the community and last week credited Australian street protests with helping bring about the current ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

In better news for the Government, Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) rebounded 5 points to 77.

However, this is still well below the neutral level of 100.

A clear majority of 54.5% of Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction, while only 31.5% say the country is heading in the right direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 86.0 this week with buying sentiment softening for a third straight week offset by slightly more positive views on personal finances and the economy over the next year.

This week Inflation Expectations dropped, down 0.2% to 5.0% and Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 5.0% over each of the next two years.

In some good news for the Albanese Government the official ABS Inflation estimates released today show the Consumer Price Index dropping to 2.4% for the year to December 2024, down 0.4% from the year to September 2024.

The important ‘Trimmed Mean’ estimate, that removes the impact of such things as food, petrol and energy – which can be volatile – also dropped, down 0.4% to 3.2%.

But of particular importance are the last two quarterly CPI estimates – each at only 0.2% - equivalent to an annual figure of less than 1% inflation.

The fall in inflation, especially over the last two quarters, increases the likelihood the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates in mid-February and we may see an election sooner rather than later…

And now to the key issues facing Australians as we head towards a Federal Election.

Roy Morgan’s in-depth survey data, interviews over 50,000 Australian electors each year and asks them what they see as the three most important issues to them?

Cost-of-living increasingly dominates voter concerns with several related issues rising significantly since mid-2022.

The blue bars represent issues at the last election, and the red bars are now.

The most important issue is clearly ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’. A majority of Australians, 57%, say keeping costs down is one of their top three issues. This issue is up 7% points since the last election.

Also increasing are ‘Keeping interest rates down’ up 8% points to 19%, and ‘Managing immigration and population growth’ surging 8% points to 14%.

The sharp rise in immigration-related concerns is during a period in which Australia has had record high immigration and housing affordability issues have been top of mind for many Australians.

At the same time, public anxiety about safety has escalated significantly with ‘Reducing crime and maintaining law and order’ jumping 10% points to 23% - the largest increase for any issue.

In contrast, the issue that has fallen rapidly in importance is: ‘Global warming and climate change’ – down 9% points to 23%. ‘Open and honest government’ is also down 6% points to 19%.

And now to the latest Roy Morgan estimates on mortgage stress that show an increase in December – a second straight monthly increase.

Now 27.9% of all Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress, up 1.1% points from a month earlier. However, that is still down 2.4% since June 2024 – before the Stage 3 tax cuts.

The decline in mortgage stress since June is primarily due to rising household incomes since the tax cuts.

However, the increases in mortgage stress in both November and December shows that the boost received by households from the Stage 3 tax cuts appears to have already run its course.

Thanks for your interest this week in Roy Morgan’s latest data. Our CEO, Michele Levine, will be back next week to bring you the most up-to-date readings on Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations, Voting Intentions and Business Confidence.

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