The number of smokers in Indonesia has surged since the pandemic, but fewer are coming from younger age groups
The latest Roy Morgan Indonesian survey from September 2024 shows that although the prevalence of cigarette smoking in Indonesia has been steadily increasing, and especially since the pandemic, these new smokers are not coming from younger age groups.
The Roy Morgan survey shows that over the last decade the overall number of smokers has risen from 43.2 million (30% of Indonesians aged 18+) in 2010 to 44.6 million in 2020 (31%). Over the last four years the smoking population has surged by nearly 10 million to almost 54.5 million people today – equivalent to 35% of the population, an increase of 4% points compared to only four years ago.
The current share of smokers in the Indonesian population is clearly higher than the share of Indonesians who were smokers in the pre-pandemic years of 2014-2019.
Number (and share) of Indonesians aged 18+ who smoke by year
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Indonesia: October 2013 – September 2024.
Base: Indonesians aged 18+, average interviews per year of n=18,427, including n=9,983 for the last 12 months.
Older age groups (35+) now comprise a larger majority of Indonesian smokers than ever before
Over two-thirds of smokers in Indonesia (68%) are now aged 35+ - equivalent to 36.8 million people. This is a stunning increase over the last decade since 2014 when roughly half of smokers (52%, and equivalent to 22.6 million people) were aged 35+.
The largest group of smokers are in the middle age group of Indonesians aged 35-49 years old.
This group contributed to under a third of smokers, 32% (13.9 million people), a decade ago in 2014, but this share has steadily increased, reaching 36% (16.2 million people) of all smokers in 2020, and has now increased to 40% (21.8 million people) - up 8% points from 2014.
The same increase can be seen among the oldest age group of Indonesians aged 50 years and above. They accounted for 20% (8.7 million people) of all smokers a decade ago in 2014, but this had increased to 24% (10.6 million people) of all smokers in 2020 and has now reached 28% (15 million people) of all smokers – up 8% points since 2014.
In contrast, the share of Indonesian smokers aged under 35 have significantly dropped from a decade ago. Now only 22% (12.2 million people) of Indonesian smokers are aged 25-34 years old compared to nearly a third, 31% (13.3 million people), a decade ago – a decline of 9% points since 2014.
The same trend is evident with younger Indonesians aged 18-24 years old who now comprise only 10% (5.5 million people) of Indonesian smokers, down 4% points from 2020 and down 7% points from 2014 when they comprised 17% (7.4 million people) of all Indonesian smokers.
Overall, now under a third of Indonesian smokers, 32% (17.7 million people), are aged under 35 compared to almost half, 48% (20.6 million people), a decade ago.
Share of Indonesians smokers by age: 2014-2024
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Indonesia: October 2013 – September 2024.
Base: Indonesians aged 18+, average interviews per year of n=18,427, including n=9,983 for the last 12 months.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the composition of Indonesia’s 54 million smokers has changed significantly over the last decade with fewer young people smoking but far more people aged 35+ taking part in the unhealthy habit:
“Smoking is experiencing a rise in popularity in Indonesia. Over the last decade the number of Indonesians smoking has increased from 43.2 million in 2014 to 54.4 million today – a significant increase of more than 11 million people (+26.1% on a decade ago).
“However, there is ‘good news’ hidden within this broader trend. Fewer younger people aged under 35 are smoking now compared to a decade ago. Now 12.2 million people aged 25-34 are smokers, down over 1 million (-8.3%) from a decade ago, and just 5.5 million people aged 18-24 are smokers, down over 1.8 million (-25.2%). As a share of the overall smoking population people aged under 35 have fallen from almost half (48%) to under a third (32%).
“It is good to see that fewer and fewer young people are smoking cigarettes today. This could be seen as a positive lifestyle shift given increased awareness of the health concerns of smoking.
“However, it is interesting, and concerning, to also see that more and more older people are smoking which suggests that once one takes up the habit of smoking it becomes an incredibly difficult ‘habit to kick’.
“These trends are set to lead to significant health problems for millions of Indonesians, and escalating healthcare costs, over the years and decades to come with over a third of Indonesians now smoking compared to under 15% of people in Australia who now smoke.”
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Finding No. 9776 – This Roy Morgan survey on smoking throughout Indonesia was conducted from October 2013 – September 2024 with a representative cross-section of 202,695 Indonesians aged 18+, an average of 18,427 interviews per year. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the population both geographically and demographically.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the Indonesia, U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
