Queensland election: Widespread distrust of government and political parties defines the election
This week’s Queensland election is taking place amidst widespread distrust of government throughout the electorate.
Importantly, Net Distrust in government in Queensland has been consistently worse than in the rest of Australia for over three years according to the latest figures from the Roy Morgan Risk Monitor.
Although levels of trust have been relatively stable over the last few years, and even increased since mid-2022 soon after the election of the current Albanese Government, it’s vital to also understand the impact of distrust – which only Roy Morgan measures.
The changes in distrust have been far more dramatic and have dropped to record lows over the last year, driving Net Distrust down significantly both nationally – and in Queensland.
Watch Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explain the results of this special Roy Morgan survey of Queenslanders in the lead-up to this week’s election in this Queensland State Election Webinar.
Trust and distrust in government in Queensland – and nationally – since 2019
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Risk Monitor. April 2018 – July 2024.
Base: Australians 14+, Latest 12 months average n=24,549; Latest 12 months average for industry n=1,099. Base: Queenslanders 14+, Latest 12 months average n=4,712. Latest 12 months average for industry n=232. Includes ABS, ACCC, AEC, ASIC, ATO, Centrelink, Comcare, CSIRO, Defence Force, Education Department, Federal Government, Government (unspecified), Local Government, Medicare, My Health Record, NDIS, Queensland Health, State Government, VicHealth.
Both Premier Steven Miles and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli have Net Distrust Scores
Queensland’s two major party leaders, Premier Steven Miles (ALP) and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli (LNP) are largely ignored when it comes to trust and distrust relating to the Queensland election.
When asked, ‘Thinking about the Queensland election, who do you trust and who do you distrust,’ only 7.3% of respondents (1-in-14) mentioned Steven Miles and just 3.8% (1-in-26) mentioned David Crisafulli. Nearly 90% of respondents failed to mention either major party leader.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, incumbent Premier Miles scored more highly than Opposition Leader Crisafulli for both trust (3.8% cf. 1.7%) and for distrust (4.3% cf. 2.2%). Miles has been the Premier of Queensland for less than a year since former leader Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned in December 2023.
However, the net result of these figures is marginal ‘Net Distrust’ score for both leaders of -0.5 indicating that neither Miles nor Crisafulli currently hold a decisive personal advantage over their rival.
Both Miles and Crisafulli face the dual challenge of increasing their visibility and transforming or building voter perceptions from distrust to trust in the last week before the election.
Trust and distrust in Premier Steven Miles (ALP) and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli (LNP)
Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey. 18-26 September 2024. Base: Queenslanders aged 18+, n=866.
Queensland have Net Distrust of the ALP, LNP and Greens, but Net Trust of One Nation
There is no great love from Queenslanders for the major political parties in the State with both the ALP and LNP facing significant levels of distrust – far exceeding the level of trust in either party.
However, despite both major parties facing a significant level of net distrust, around one-in-five respondents do trust one, or the other, of the two major parties.
Right on 20% of respondents say they trust the LNP, slightly more than the 18.7% that trust the ALP while only 6.1% trust One Nation and even fewer, just 5.1%, trust the Greens.
Trust and distrust in the four major parties in Queensland
Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey. 18-26 September 2024. Base: Queensland aged 18+, n=866.
Trust in the LNP is driven by the party being ‘Better than the Government/Greens’ – mentioned by 23.7% of respondents who mentioned they trusted the LNP, ahead of ‘Trustworthiness/ No reason not to trust’ (7%), ‘Doing a good job’ (6.6%) and ‘Good leadership’ (6%).
The largest driver of trust in the ALP is a mirror image of the results for the LNP with 17.8% of respondents who say they trust the ALP mentioning that Labor is ‘Better than the Opposition/Greens’ ahead of a ‘Good track record’ (12.6%), ‘Ethical/ does the right thing/ benefits society’ (9.9%) and ‘Doing a good job’ (8.1%).
Around a third of Queenslanders distrust the two major parties and almost one-in-five distrust the Greens
Far more significant than the level of trust is the high levels of distrust in the three leading parties – which exceed the level of trust for them by significant margins of more than 10% points.
Over a third of respondents distrust the ALP (35.5%) and almost as many distrust the LNP (32.1%), while 18.1% distrust the Greens. In contrast, One Nation performs well on this measure with just 4.4% of respondents distrusting the hard-right party.
These levels of distrust mean each of the three leading parties has a significant level of Net Distrust led by the ALP (-16.8) ahead of the Greens (-12.9) and the LNP (-12.1).
However, and perhaps surprisingly to some, One Nation has a positive Net Trust Score of +1.7.
These four parties recorded over 92% of the vote at the most recent Queensland State Election held four years ago: ALP (39.6%), LNP (35.9%), Greens (9.5%) and One Nation (7.1%).
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that distrust is at ‘dangerously high levels’ for the two major parties in Queensland on the eve of the election indicating a general lack of excitement about the choices on offer despite the LNP looking on course for a victory:
“Roy Morgan trust and distrust polling prior to recent elections (both federal and state) shows that without trust, a candidate or party will struggle to win – but when both major parties are distrusted, who does that benefit?
“The Queensland election has been unique among recent Australian elections with both major parties, and even the third force in Australian politics the Greens, having far higher distrust in the electorate than trust.
“The level of community distrust of each of the ALP, LNP and the Greens in Queensland is clearly over 10% points higher than the level of trust – indicating none of these parties is widely regarded as the answer to the issues faced by many Queenslanders.
“Both major parties do have their core supporters with 20% of Queenslanders mentioning they trust the LNP, and almost as many, 18.7%, who trust the ALP – however, well over 30% of respondents distrust each of the two major parties.
“Intriguingly, it appears one of the beneficiaries of this sentiment may be the Queensland based One Nation which scored 7.1% of the vote at the last State Election and won one seat. One Nation is the only one of the four largest parties with a positive Net Trust rating of +1.7 – 6.1% of Queenslanders trust the party and only 4.4% distrust.
“One of the key findings of this research is how little influence, and cut-through, the two major party leaders Premier Steven Miles (ALP) and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli (LNP) have. Nearly 90% of respondents did not mention either Miles or Crisafulli when asked ‘Thinking about the Queensland election, who do you trust and who do you distrust?’
“What little Queenslanders did have to say about Miles and Crisafulli did tend to be negative – both leaders have net distrust ratings of -0.5%. This lack of enthusiasm for the major parties, and their leaders, brings to the fore the potential wildcards that could produce unexpected results on election night.
“The wildcards at the Queensland election won’t be the positives such as subsidised transport and power bills or free school lunches, but will be defined by the electorate’s fear and anxiety. Women and the threat to abortion laws, the issue of youth crime and children in incarceration.
“The other wildcard to look out for is illustrated by the high levels of distrust in the three major parties. This high level of distrust leaves the door open to smaller parties such as One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party, other minor parties and independents, to influence the results in key electorates and potentially impacting the overall balance of power in the election’s aftermath.”
The latest Risk Report ranking over 200 brands on Net Trust or Net Distrust Scores is available here.
The Roy Morgan Risk Monitor surveys approximately 2,000 Australians every month (around 25,000 per year) to measure levels of trust and distrust of around 1,000 brands across 27 industries. Respondents are asked which brands they trust, and why, and which brands they distrust, and why. The survey is designed to be open-ended, context-free, and unprompted. Roy Morgan Risk Monitor data is available in a variety of formats, from snapshot overviews to detailed tracking of individual brands and competitors. Industry Trust and Distrust Surveys are also conducted (eg. Politics, Telco, Utilities, Insurance, Banking, Agribusiness, Media, Retail, etc.) for deeper insights into perceptions of, and experience with brands.
To learn more call (+61) (3) 9224 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is the source of the most comprehensive data on Australians’ behaviour and attitudes, surveying over 1,000 people weekly in a continuous cycle that has been running for two decades. The company has more than 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
