ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.8pts to 86.9 as Cyclone Alfred hit Southern Queensland and Northern NSW
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 0.8pts to 86.9 this week as Cyclone Alfred approached, and then landed, in the coastal regions of South-Eastern Queensland and Northern New South Wales bringing significant rainfall despite weakening before landfall.
Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago, March 4-10, 2024 (82.2), and in line with the 2025 weekly average of 87.1.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the biggest decrease in Queensland along with smaller declines in Victoria and South Australia, but small increases in New South Wales and Western Australia.
A look across the index shows decreasing confidence about the prospects for Australia’s economy over the next year and next five years drove this week’s decline.
Current financial conditions
- More than a fifth of Australians, 22% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 45% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year weakened for a second straight week with 31% of respondents, (down 3ppts), expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 28% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. It is worth noting that this index remains the only one of the five in positive territory – for every week this year.
Short-term economic confidence
- Views on the economy over the next year weakened this week with under one-in-ten Australians, 9% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 28% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term weakened slightly this week with just 12% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a fifth, 21% (up 3ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- There was a small improvement in net buying intentions this week with only 25% (up 1ppt) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 42% (down 2ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen 2.9pts over the past fortnight but is still 1.8pts higher than before the RBA cut the cash rate. Last week’s 0.8pt decline may be partly attributable to ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its impacts on the communities of southern Queensland and northern NSW. Queensland confidence fell more than other mainland states. Uncertainty about the global economic environment may have also played a role, with household confidence in the five-year economic outlook falling 3.5pts. Confidence in the 12-month outlook for the economy also declined 3.3pts.
Inflation expectations increased last week and are up 0.5ppt over the past fortnight. However, it is worth noting that expectations have moved off roughly a three and a half year low of 4.2%.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
