ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.9pts to 82.0 after the RBA leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.35%
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.9pts to 82.0 this week after the RBA decided to leave interest rates unchanged at an equal 13 year high of 4.35%. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 87 straight weeks below the mark of 85.
However, despite this week’s fall, Consumer Confidence is still 3.8 points above the same week a year ago, September 25 – October 1, 2023 (78.2), and in line with the 2024 weekly average of 82.1.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows mixed results with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but unchanged in Victoria and South Australia.
Current financial conditions
- Now a fifth of Australians, 20% (down 3ppts), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53% (up 5ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year are down slightly this week with under a third of respondents, 32% (down 2ppts), expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 31% (unchanged), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
- Now under one-in-ten Australians, 9% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to fewer than a third, 31% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with 12% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just under a fifth, 19% (unchanged), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Buying intentions were down this week with a fifth of Australians, 20% (down 2ppts), saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, compared to a large plurality of 49% (unchanged) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence declined 2.9pts last week following the RBA’s decision to keep the cash rate on hold. The drop in confidence was broad-based, but there was a particularly large fall in households’ confidence in their current financial conditions. The subindex declined 6.7pts, its largest weekly fall in more than a year.
Inflation expectations declined 0.3ppts after the monthly CPI indicator showed that headline inflation fell back within the RBA’s 2-3% target band. At 4.6%, inflation expectations are at their equal lowest since September 2021.
There’s also been movement across the housing cohorts, with the four-week moving average of confidence amongst renters back below that of households paying off a mortgage. Those who own their home outright remain the most confident.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
