Australian unemployment dropped in March as part-time jobs surged; but this caused an increase in under-employment
In March 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 78,000 to 1,358,000 (down 0.5% to 8.7% of the workforce) as employment reached an all-time high of over 14.2 million.
However, the composition of the workforce changed – part-time employment surged 295,000 (up 6.1%) to 5,164,000 (a new record high). Unfortunately, there was a substantial decrease in full-time employment, down 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000 as the composition of the employment market changed significantly.
The rise in part-time employment was correlated to the increase in under-employment, up 75,000 to 1,576,000 (10.1%, up 0.5%). In total a massive 2.93 million Australians (18.8%, unchanged) were unemployed or under-employed in March.
The March Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
- Employment reaches new record high of over 14.2 million in March:
Australian employment increased 39,000 to 14,267,000 in March. Part-time employment drove the increase, up 295,000 (up 6.1%) to a new record high of 5,164,000 while full-time employment dropped 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000.
- Unemployment dropped in March with 78,000 fewer looking for work:
In March 1,358,000 Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce, down 0.5%), a decrease of 78,000 from February driven by fewer people looking for part-time work. There were 763,000 (down 70,000) looking for part-time work and 595,000 (down 8,000) looking for full-time work.
- Overall unemployment and under-employment was unchanged in March at 18.8%:
In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.58 million Australians (10.1% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 75,000 from February. In total 2.93 million Australians (18.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March.
- Comparisons with a year ago show rapidly increasing workforce driving employment growth:
The workforce in March was 15,625,000 (down 39,000 from February, but up a massive 641,000 from a year ago) – comprised of 14,267,000 employed Australians (up 39,000 from a month ago) and 1,358,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 78,000).
Although unemployment and under-employment remain high at 2.93 million, there has been a surge in employment over the last year – up by 693,000 to a new record high of 14,267,000.
Compared to four years ago in early March 2020, in March 2024 there were almost 800,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+3.2% points) even though overall employment (14,267,000) is almost 1.4 million higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).
ABS Comparison
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.7% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.7% for February but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.
The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in February 2024 due to illness, injury or sick leave was 521,700. This is around 140,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the five years to February 2019 (382,100) – a difference of 139,600.
If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (139,600) is added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,533,000 we find a total of 1,673,600 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent to 11.3% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2024)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – March 2024. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says total Australian unemployment or under-employment was virtually unchanged in March but has averaged over 3 million (19.3% of the workforce) for the last six months, up from 2.86 million (18.8%) for the previous six months:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for March show total Australian unemployment or under-employment is virtually unchanged at 2,934,000 (18.8% of the workforce). ’Real’ unemployment was 1,358,000 (8.7% of the workforce) while under-employment increased to 1,576,000 (10.1%).
“There has been a re-alignment in the employment markets in recent months with the rise in under-employment closely related to surging part-time employment. In March, part-time employment increased by 295,000 (up 6.1% on a month ago) to a new record high of 5,164,000. In contrast, full-time employment decreased by 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000.
“This trend of the increasing casualisation of the workforce is evident when comparing the latest employment figures for March with a year ago. Since March 2023 part-time employment has surged by 580,000 (84% of jobs created over the last year) while full-time employment has increased by only 113,000 (16% of jobs created).
“These results indicate the underlying weakness in the economy with under-employment now over 1.5 million for six months in a row – this has never happened before, even during the recent pandemic – “another reason” why the Reserve Bank should consider reducing interest rates.
“These changes are taking place within the broader context of high population growth which is up 759,000 from a year ago – more double the annual average over the last 25 years of 286,000 – which has led to increases in all the key labour force statistics compared to a year ago.
“The rapidly increasing population has powered an increase in the workforce of 641,000 to over 15.6 million and total employment is up 693,000 to over 14.2 million. Employment growth over the last year has grown at three times the 25-year annual average of 231,000.
“The sustained increase in under-employment in recent months shows the labour market is struggling to provide the right jobs for all those joining the workforce. Tackling this continuing high level of unemployment and under-employment must be the number one priority for the Federal Government over the next year heading into the next election due in early 2025.”
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 968,606 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and March 2024 and includes 7,512 telephone and online interviews in March 2024. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
