Over 4.3 million Australians plan to buy a new vehicle in the next four years – with hybrid vehicles up significantly
New data from Roy Morgan suggests the future will look very different. For the first time, the preference for purchasing a hybrid or fully electric vehicle (1,880,000, up 191,000) in the next four years has overtaken that of petrol cars (1,689,000).
Following the automotive industry’s record-breaking sales in 2023 (1,216,780[1]), 4.3 million Australians plan to buy a new vehicle in the next four years. Petrol vehicles are the most popular with 1,689,000 Australians (39% of new car intenders) planning to purchase one, although this is down 81,000 from a year ago.
The biggest mover in the past year has been the rising intention to purchase a hybrid (petrol and electric) vehicle, up 154,000 to 1,273,000 (30% of new car intenders) and easily the second most popular type of vehicle on people’s purchasing radar.
Fully electric cars are also enjoying a surge in interest with 607,000 Australians intending to purchase an ‘EV’ (electric vehicle) in the next four years, up 37,000 from a year ago.
In contrast to the rising popularity of hybrid and electric vehicles, it is diesel cars which are fast falling out of favour. Only 498,000 Australians intend to purchase a diesel vehicle in the next four years, down a stunning 130,000 in a year – now only 12% of ‘new car intenders’ plan to buy a diesel vehicle.
The popularity of hydrogen vehicles has failed to take off with only 17,000 intending to purchase a hydrogen vehicle in the next four years, down 6,000 from a year ago. A further 218,000 people intending to purchase a vehicle don’t know what type of vehicle it will be.
These are the latest findings from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey derived from in-depth interviews with over 1,000 Australians each week and well over 60,000 each year.
Australians intending to purchase vehicle in the next four years by type of vehicle
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) January – December 2022, n=13,408, January – December 2023, n=12,912. Base: Australians aged 14+ intending to buy a new vehicle in the next four years.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says the intention to purchase hybrid and electric vehicles is increasing strongly at the expense of petrol and diesel vehicles, showing the changing nature of Australian vehicle preferences:
“The types of vehicles that Australians intend to buy are changing rapidly with sharp growth in the number planning to purchase a hybrid (petrol and electric) vehicle in the next four years – up 154,000 to 1,273,000 (30% of new vehicle intenders), compared to a year ago.
“This growth far outstrips that for electric vehicles, up 37,000 to 607,000 (14% of new vehicle intenders) and shows the perceived benefits surrounding hybrid cars are an increasingly attractive force for those in the market for a new car.
“Looking at these two classes of vehicles together shows that 1,880,000 (up 191,000) people now intend to purchase either a hybrid or fully electric car in the next four years – ahead of the preference for petrol vehicles (1,689,000) for the first time.
“The other big mover – in the wrong direction – have been diesel vehicles with preference falling 130,000 to 498,000 (12% of new car intenders). Perhaps surprisingly, preference for hydrogen vehicles has also fallen, down 6,000 to 17,000 (less than 1% of new car intenders).
“The latest figures on intention to buy show the preference to buy an electric vehicle (‘EV’) in the next four years has overtaken diesel vehicles for the first time. This no doubt reflects the increasing choice available in the local EV market.
“Australia is set to be one of the first global markets for the new Kia EV5 with the all-electric vehicle set to hit Australian shores in June. As well as this new offering from Kia, there are new electric vehicle models available from MG and BYD (‘Build Your Dream’) – a company that is now challenging Tesla for leadership in the global EV market.
“This new competition is exciting, but a look at vehicle preferences by brand shows Toyota continues to be the standout choice of over 20% of all Australian new vehicle intenders – more than double any competing brand.
“There were several brands to make up ground on Toyota over the last year including Hyundai, Kia, Tesla, Subaru, Mercedes-Benz, MG, Lexus, Volvo, GWM and BYD (Build Your Dream). All 10 of these brands increased their preference levels amongst new car intenders compared to a year ago.
“Roy Morgan’s extensive Single Source data allows for a ‘deep-dive’ into the motivations of Australians in the market for a new car – who they are, what they believe in, what media they consume, where they spend their money, and what factors will drive their decision to purchase one brand of new car over another.
“Contact Roy Morgan to learn more.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s consumer data please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Related research findings
Find out more about Australians via the Roy Morgan Leading Indicators – Car Buying Intention Report; and in-depth detail about who is intending to purchase electric vehicles as well as used vehicles and key types of vehicles such as those who intend to purchase an SUV, passenger vehicle or light commercial vehicle.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in the United States and the United Kingdom. A full-service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
[1] Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) 2023 Sales: https://www.fcai.com.au/news/index/view/news/815
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
