Roy Morgan Update September 26, 2023: The Voice, Federal Vote & Consumer Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on The Voice, Federal Vote & Consumer Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

And this week, Spring might be here, but it’s not all good news as cost-of-living concerns continue to bite and the coming referendum looks set to divide Australians.

Let’s start with a look at the results from Roy Morgan’s latest survey on ‘The Voice’.

In December last year Australians supported establishing an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ – known by most as “The Voice”.

Roy Morgan research showed 53% ‘Yes’.

In mid-April and late May, support dropped to 46%

And in the latest Roy Morgan online survey of Australians, just last week, only 39% said they’d vote ‘Yes’ – that’s down 7% since late May – the pendulum has swung.

Now more Australians, say they’ll vote ‘No’ than ‘Yes’ (44% to 39%). 17% are still ‘Undecided’.

The most important demographic break for any referendum is the result by State – for any referendum to pass in Australia a majority of voters nationally as well as a majority of voters in at least four Australian States must vote ‘Yes’ to the change.

This ‘double hurdle’ is a key reason that not many referendums have passed in Australian history.

Roy Morgan’s latest survey shows only one State, Tasmania, now has a majority in support of ‘The Voice’ at 56%.

More Victorians say ‘Yes’ than ‘No’ (46% cf. 42%).

In every other State the ‘No’s’ outweigh the ‘Yes’s’.

At these levels of support with voting starting next week it is almost impossible to see a way for the ‘Yes’ campaign to turn around the sentiment of Australians – especially in these three States.

Looking at support for ‘The Voice’ by party affiliation shows similar pattern to May.

Clear majorities of ALP and Greens supporters say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’.

Large majorities of L-NP supporters and supporters of One Nation and ‘Other Parties’ say they will vote ‘No’.

People who support Independents – including ‘Teal Independents’ split right down the middle on the question – 42% say they will vote ‘Yes’ and 42% say they will vote ‘No’.

The overall sentiment from these results is that this referendum is set to be rejected by the Australian people in three weeks.

If the referendum is rejected as expected this will prove once again how important it is to get bipartisan support for any proposal to be taken to the people via a referendum.

Some good news this week is the finding of the Employment White Paper that suggests definitions of employment and unemployment need to be redefined to properly reflect the labour market of today.

Roy Morgan has consistently measured far higher unemployment and under-employment than the official ABS figures over the last 15 years – given the broader definition we use to measure unemployment.

If someone who isn’t working is looking for a job, we consider that person unemployed, and if someone is working part-time but wants to work more hours – we consider that person to be under-employed.

The labour market today is much more nuanced than in the 1940s just after the war –  3/4 of a century ago – when the official measures were created in the US and Europe.

The Government’s move to redefine how official unemployment and under-employment estimates are calculated is a welcome step in the right direction.

We will have Roy Morgan’s latest unemployment and under-employment figures for September to bring you next week.