Roy Morgan Update September 19, 2023: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence & AFL Supporter Ladder 2023

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence & AFL Supporter Ladder 2023.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

But first, ‘Spring has sprung’ and as we emerge from the Winter months there is good news this week with several indicators going in the right direction Consumer Confidence up, Government Confidence up, Inflation Expectations down and this week with ‘Footy Finals’ in full swing we’ll have a look at the latest Roy Morgan AFL Supporter ladder.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows ALP support up 1.5% to 54% with the Coalition on 46% on a two-party preferred basis.

Government Confidence also moved sharply in the right direction, up 9 points to 92 – the highest it has been for nearly four months since late May.

With the index below 100 more Australians still say the country’s heading in the wrong direction than the right direction – but it’s a move in the right direction.

Now a rising share of the population, 38.5%, up 6%, say the country is ‘going in the right direction’, compared to 46.5%, down 3%, who say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction.

Consumer Confidence was up 2.2 points to 79.8 this week.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 29 weeks in recessionary risk territory below the mark of 80. This week’s increase means the indicator  at 79.8 is very close to 80, and is now at its highest since late April.

Analysis of Consumer Confidence by housing status shows the improvement this week has come from People Paying Off Their Mortgages – up 4.1 points to 78.5; and for Renters, up 4.7 points to 80.5.

There was a slight decline for Home Owners, down 2.3 points to 80.5.

Of these three key housing segments the biggest improvement over the past two weeks is for those with a mortgage – up by 6.5 points since the RBA left interest rates unchanged.

The RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged for three straight months is clearly having an impact on this group and Consumer Confidence for those with a mortgage is now at its highest since early February – before the RBA resumed its interest rate hikes this year.

Inflation Expectations were down 0.3% points to 4.9% this week, the first time the indicator has dropped below 5% all year.

In fact, this is the lowest Inflation Expectations have been for over 18 months since early February 2022 – before the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices (and inflation) soaring.

Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 4.9% over the next two years – in line with the most recent ABS monthly annual inflation figures for July.

Next week the ABS is set to release its Monthly Annual Inflation figures for August and the latest Roy Morgan figures for Inflation Expectations suggest inflation continues to moderate in the Australian economy after peaking late last year.