Roy Morgan Update September 5, 2023: Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence & Australia/NZ Voting
In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence & Australia/NZ Voting.
Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.
Roy Morgan has never had as much media coverage as this week first on mortgage stress and then the public backlash against Qantas – our Risk Report showed Qantas dropped from one of the most trusted brands to one of Australia’s most distrusted brands.
Check out our video link at the end of this video.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows ALP support virtually unchanged at 53% (down 0.5%) compared to the Coalition on 47% on a two-party preferred basis.
Government Confidence increased for a second straight week, up 4 points to 88.5 – its highest for over three months.
Consumer Confidence was up 0.6 points to 78.7 – its highest for over four months since April.
However, despite the increase ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 27 weeks, below the mark of 80 – alarmingly deep in recessionary risk territory.
The June quarter GDP figures are set to be released tomorrow and widely expected to show low, or even no, growth in the quarter.
Inflation Expectations were virtually unchanged at 5.3% this week (up from 5.2% last week). Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 5.3% over the next two years.
Now a look at Business and there’s good news with a jump in Business Confidence by 7.2 points to 94.7 in August.
Roy Morgan interviews around 1,500 businesses each month and the recovery in Business Confidence in August follows the RBA’s decision to pause interest rate increases in recent months.
Business Confidence is now at its highest for six months since February 2023.
Businesses grew more confident about their own prospects as well as the performance of the Australian economy in August.
Having said that, a majority of businesses (58.3%) expect ‘bad times’ for the Australian economy over the next year and 56.3% expect ‘bad times’ over the next five years.
That said, some sectors are far more confident than others.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
