Roy Morgan Update August 29, 2023: Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Stress & Artificial Intelligence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Stress & Artificial Intelligence.

This week we have the latest on mortgage stress – a record 1.5 million at risk of mortgage stress and still increasing – and also some interesting new research on AI conducted in conjunction with the ‘Campaign for AI Safety’ regarding Artificial Intelligence and its potential implications for all of us.

Firstly, the Key Weekly Indicators show some improvement.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows ALP support up 0.5% points to 53.5% compared to the Coalition on 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

Government Confidence recovered this week, up 8 points to 84.5 this week.

Consumer Confidence was up 2.3 points to 78.1, continuing the up-down pattern of the last six weeks. Consumer Confidence has averaged 76.8 since mid-July.

Of more concern is the longer-term performance of the index, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has now spent a record six months, or 26 weeks, below the mark of 80 – alarmingly deep in recessionary risk territory, and the June quarter GDP figures to be released next week are widely expected to show low, or even no, growth in the quarter.

Inflation Expectations were down 0.3% points this week, Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 5.2% over the next two years.

This is the equal lowest Inflation Expectations since mid-May.

And next we look at the pressing issue for many Australians of mortgage stress.

Roy Morgan is the only company that measures ‘mortgage stress’ every month and the latest Roy Morgan ‘mortgage stress’ figures are out for July 2023.

29.2% of all mortgage holders are now ‘At Risk’.

This figure equates to an estimated 1.5 million mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress – a new record high.

If you’re looking at the chart and see 35.6% of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ during the Global Financial Crisis and only 29.2% now – the record number of people is because there is now a much larger pool of Australians with mortgages.

In addition, and most concerningly, over one-in-five mortgage holders are now ‘Extremely At Risk’. That’s 20.3% of all mortgage holders.

This is equivalent to 1,017,000 mortgage holders and is the highest figure for those ‘Extremely At Risk’ for 15 years since July 2008.

These figures are concerning enough however if the RBA lifts interest rates next week – perhaps due to concerns about the low Australian Dollar, now under 65 US cents – these numbers will continue to increase.