Roy Morgan Update July 18, 2023: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence & Cinema Attendance
In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence & Cinema Attendance.
Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.
First up is politics, and the Coalition had a much-needed win over the weekend – winning the Fadden by-election in Queensland with an above average swing.
LNP candidate Cameron Caldwell gained a swing of 4.2% on two-party preferred basis for an easy victory over the Labor candidate.
This was a much more positive result for the Coalition than a few months ago in Victoria when the Albanese Government, against the odds, won the seat of Aston from the Liberals.
The Queensland swing away from the Government was replicated in the Federal voting intention this week.
Support for the Albanese Government is down 1.5% to 53%, although this is still ahead of the Coalition on 47%, up 1.5%.
This is the closest result so far this year.
Government Confidence – whether people think the country is going in the right direction or the wrong direction – is down by 2 points to 80.
This is the lowest Government Confidence since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022.
Now a majority of 51.5% of Australians say the country is ‘Heading in the Wrong Direction’ – and under a third, 31.5%, say the ‘Right Direction’.
In further bad news, Consumer Confidence is down AGAIN – down by 0.7 points to 72.6.
Consumer Confidence has now drifted lower for three straight weeks since late June and has now spent 20 weeks below 80 and six weeks below the mark of 75 – the longest period at these recessionary levels since 1990-91.
Consumer Confidence by housing status continues to show People Paying Off Their Homes with the lowest Consumer Confidence at only 68.2 – although this was up by 3 points from last week’s record low.
This week there were drops for Renters, down 3.6 points to 71.4 and for Home Owners, down 1.7 points to 78.2.
There was concerning news on the inflation front this week. Inflation Expectations were up 0.1% points to 5.6%.
Australians now expect annual inflation to be 5.6% over each of the next two years.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
