Roy Morgan Update July 11, 2023: Fed Vote, Cons. & Bus. Confidence, Inflation Expectations, Indo vote

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence, Inflation Expectations & Indonesian Voting Intention.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

Today we’re looking at politics, confidence – both consumer and business, inflation and the latest voting data from Indonesia which faces Presidential and Legislative elections early next year.

First up are the key weekly indicators which don’t hold good news for the Government this week.

Support for the Albanese Government is down 1.5% to 54.5%, although this is still ahead of the Coalition on 45.5%, up 1.5%.

Government Confidence – whether people think the country is going in the right direction or the wrong direction – is down by 4.5 points to 82.

This is the lowest Government Confidence since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022.

Now a majority of 51.5% of Australians say the country is ‘Heading in the Wrong Direction’ – and only a third, 33.5%, say the ‘Right Direction’.

And Consumer Confidence is down. Despite the RBA opting not to increase interest rates last week there’s a lot of discussion that the they will go up again in a few weeks time.

Consumer Confidence was down 0.8 points to 73.3.

Consumer Confidence has now spent 19 weeks below 80 and five weeks below the mark of 75 – the longest period at these recessionary levels since 1990-91.

The RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged did not provide a boost to People Paying Off Their Homes with their confidence down 3.4 points to 65.2 – a record low for this group.

Consumer Confidence for Renters was virtually unchanged at 75 while there was a slight improvement for Home Owners, up 0.6 points to 79.9.

There was some good news on the inflation front with Inflation Expectations down 0.4% points to 5.5% this week. Australians now expect annual inflation to be 5.5% over each of the next two years.

Now a look at Business – Roy Morgan interviews around 1,500 businesses each month and the results for June show Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 1.5 points to 88.8 – the lowest for nearly three years.