Roy Morgan Update June 14, 2023: Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence & A-League Supporters
In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence & A-League Supporters.
Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update including Business Confidence and football.
But first, a look at several of the key weekly indicators which were negatively impacted by the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates last week, up 0.25% to 4.1%.
However, despite these indicators moving in the wrong direction, support for the Government is strong and increased slightly.
Support for the Albanese Government was up 0.5% to 56% on a two-party preferred basis and support for the Coalition was down 0.5% at 44%.
This is about 4% higher than last year’s Federal Election result which the ALP won with 52.1% of the vote.
However, Government Confidence – whether people think the country is going in the right direction or the wrong direction - dropped 1.5 points to 82.5 this week – and is now back to the level it was prior to last year’s Federal Election.
A majority – 50.5% of Australians – say the country is ‘Heading in the Wrong Direction’ and only 33% say it’s ‘Heading in the Right Direction’.
Consumers reacted badly to the RBA’s decision to raise interest rates. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.1 points to 72.7 – the lowest it has been since early April 2020, right at the start of the pandemic.
In addition, Consumer Confidence has now spent 15 weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest period at recession levels since the index began. This is really worrying.
The RBA’s interest rate increase prompted a negative response across the population especially from those most directly impacted – People Paying Off Their Homes.
Consumer Confidence for People Paying Off Their Homes plunged 5 points to only 66.2 – a record low for this group.
Consumer Confidence for Renters was down sharply by 5 points to 75.5, and down 0.9 points to 75 for Home Owners.
There was some slightly better news on the inflation front following the RBA’s meeting, with Inflation Expectations unchanged this week.
Australians now expect annual inflation to be 5.5% over each of the next two years.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
