ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.1 points to 72.7 after the RBA raises interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1% and buying conditions deteriorate
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell by 3.1 points to 72.7 this week and is now at its lowest since early April 2020. The index has now spent fifteen straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least fifteen weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer Confidence is now 7.7pts below the same week a year ago, June 6-12, 2022 (80.4) and 6.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.5. Looking around the States there were again mixed results with Consumer Confidence up in NSW (perhaps surprisingly), but down in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA.
There was a consistent move downward in the index this week with the largest contributor to the fall being a sharp rise in those saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items after the RBA raised interest rates for the 12th time in just over a year.
Current financial conditions
- Now 17% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 56% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (a NEW RECORD HIGH for this indicator).
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, just over a quarter of Australians, 28% (unchanged), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while two-fifths, 40% (up 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator for well over 30 years since August 1989).
Current economic conditions
- Only 6% (up 1 ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over two-fifths, 43% (up 4ppts), that expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since August 2022).
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 11% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just over a fifth, 22% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Sentiment regarding to buying intentions has deteriorated this week after a slight jump a week ago with 19% (down 2ppts) of Australians, who now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a rising majority of 57% (up 5ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator for over three years since the very start of the pandemic in March 2020.
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:
Consumer confidence fell to its lowest since April 2020 and was among the four weakest results since the pandemic. Confidence has been at extremely weak levels for around 15 weeks but has fallen 7.2pts further in the last six weeks. Confidence about economic conditions, both current and future, fell most sharply last week following the latest RBA cash rate increase to 4.1%. Confidence about current financial conditions, future financial conditions and the ‘time to buy a major household item’ are all within 0.1ppt of their lowest since March 2020. Confidence fell among renters, outright owners and those paying off their homes, though those paying off their homes fell to a record low.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
