NSW Voting Intention: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% with State Election approaching in March 2023
The latest Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 52% (up 4% points since the 2019 NSW State Election) has a slight lead over the Liberal-National Coalition on 48% (down 4% points) on a two-party preferred basis.
This Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted via telephone and online surveying with 1,234 New South Wales electors aged 18+ during the month of November 2022
Primary voting intention shows support for both major parties is stuck below 40%
The primary vote support of the two major parties is stuck below 40% in November with the Liberal-National Coalition on 37%, down 4.6% points from the 2019 NSW Election, just ahead of the ALP on 35%, up 1.7% points.
Not since the 2007 New South Wales Election have both major parties failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a New South Wales State Election.
Support for the Greens is at 11.5% (up 1.9% points) while total support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is now at 16.5% (up 1% point).
Among the minor parties support for One Nation is at 5%, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party is on 1.5% and the Animal Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Legalise Cannabis Party, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and ‘Teal Independents’ are all on 0.5% support and another 7.5% say they will support other minor parties and independents.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says Opposition Leader Chris Minns is on track to be the first Labor Premier of NSW since Kristina Keneally lost the 2011 NSW State Election:
“Roy Morgan began interviewing for State voting intention in New South Wales in mid-2022 and the results have consistently shown the Labor Party with the edge on a two-party preferred basis in each month interviewed so far.
“The latest results show Opposition Leader Chris Minns is on track to repeat the effort of fellow Sydney-sider Anthony Albanese and lead the ALP into Government early next year.
“On a two-party preferred basis the ALP is on 52% and clearly has the edge over the 12-year old Liberal-National Coalition Government on 48%, now led by Premier Dominic Perrottet.
“A victory for the ALP in New South Wales will mean wall-to-wall Labor Governments on the Australian mainland with only the three-term Tasmanian Liberal Government led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff standing against a clean sweep of Australia’s nine legislatures.”
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann 9224 5365 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Question 1:
“If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"
New South Wales Primary Voting Intention – Trends.
| New South Wales Electors 18+ | ||||
| PRIMARY | 2019 NSW Election |
September 2022 |
October 2022 |
November 2022 |
| VOTE | % | % | % | % |
| L-NP | 41.6 | 34 | 32 | 37 |
| ALP | 33.3 | 34 | 36.5 | 35 |
| Greens | 9.6 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 11.5 |
| Total Others | 15.5 | 19.5 | 22 | 16.5 |
| One Nation | 1.1 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 5 |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF) Party | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Animal Justice Party | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Liberal Democrats | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Legalise Cannabis Party | n/a | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| UAP: United Australia Party | n/a | 1 | 1 | 0.5 |
| ‘Teal Independents’ | n/a | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Independents | 4.8 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 |
| Other Parties | 4.4 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
New South Wales Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.
| New South Wales Electors 18+ | ||||
| 2019 NSW Election |
September 2022 |
October 2022 |
November 2022 |
|
| 2PP | % | % | % | % |
| L-NP | 52 | 47 | 43 | 48 |
| ALP | 48 | 53 | 57 | 52 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
