New Christmas spending forecasts swell to $66 billion as Aussies set to break new retail records
Australia’s largest national retail body the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) has bumped up its pre-Christmas spending forecasts by another two billion, now predicting a record $66 billion will be spent in the November to December Christmas trading period.
The ARA holiday sales predictions with Roy Morgan forecast a record-breaking spend in the lead up to Christmas which is up 6.4% on last year’s spending.
ARA CEO Paul Zahra said higher numbers are driven largely by price increases as well as stronger food and hospitality spending, as Aussies enjoy their post-pandemic experiences.
“These are great results, however, it’s important to acknowledge that price increases are a factor in these numbers and are also driving Australians to spend to get in ahead of inflation.
“Aussies truly plan to eat, drink and be merry this Christmas. It’s no surprise we are seeing a shift towards food and entertaining with the holiday period over the past two years spent in the shadow of lockdowns,” said Mr Zahra. “The news couldn’t come at a better time for the hospitality sector who have endured more pain than most businesses through the pandemic.”
Out of the states and territories, NSW, Victoria and Queensland have driven most of the projected spike in spending. New South Wales is set to record a $20.8 billion spend (up 7.7%), followed by Victoria with $17.1 billion (up 5.2%), with Queensland spending predicted to top $13.5 billion (up 6.8%).
ARA/Roy Morgan Pre-Christmas Sales (Retail Categories)
| Category | 2021 Pre-Christmas Sales
($m – seasonally adjusted) |
2022 Pre-Christmas Sales forecasts
($m – seasonally adjusted) |
Growth % vs 2021
(Seasonally adjusted) |
| Food | $24,346 | $25,401 | 4.3% |
| Household Goods | $11,584 | $11,657 | 0.6% |
| Clothing | $5,294 | $5,500 | 3.9% |
| Department Stores | $3,249 | $3,407 | 4.9% |
| Other Retailing | $9,785 | $10,094 | 3.2% |
| Hospitality | $7,788 | $9,978 | 28.1% |
| TOTAL | $62,047 | $66,037 | 6.4% |
| Food | $24,346 | $25,401 | 4.3% |
| Non-Food | $37,701 | $40,636 | 7.8% |
ARA/Roy Morgan Pre-Christmas Sales (States and Territories)
| State/Territory | 2021 Pre-Christmas Sales
($m – seasonally adjusted) |
2022 Pre-Christmas Sales forecasts
($m – seasonally adjusted) |
Growth % vs 2021
(seasonally adjusted) |
| NSW | $19,375 | $20,864 | 7.7% |
| Victoria | $16,329 | $17,179 | 5.2% |
| Queensland | $12,682 | $13,540 | 6.8% |
| South Australia | $3,846 | $4,100 | 6.6% |
| Western Australia | $6,839 | $7,200 | 5.6% |
| Tasmania | $1,253 | $1,324 | 5.6% |
| Northern Territory | $570 | $586 | 2.9% |
| ACT | $1,153 | $1,222 | 5.9% |
| TOTAL | $62,047 | $66,038 | 6.4% |
The rising cost of doing business along with supply chain disruptions and staff shortages remain top of mind for retailers. The ARA continues to engage with governments around short and long-term solutions to aid the retail industry’s permanent state of disruption.
Sensory indulgence is a key theme for spending 2022, with alcohol and food topping the list of intended Christmas gift purchases for this year, followed by gift cards and toys. Men were the most likely to purchase alcohol or food, whilst women were more interested in small inexpensive gifts or novelties, clothing, shoes and sleepwear or books and music.
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About us: The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is the oldest, largest and most diverse national retail body, representing a $400 billion sector that employs 1.3 million Australians and is the largest private sector employer in the country. As Australia’s peak retail body, representing more than 120,000 retail shop fronts and online stores, the ARA informs, advocates, educates, protects and unifies our independent, national and international retail community. To learn more about ARA’s exclusive member benefits and more, visit retail.org.au
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
