ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1pt to 83.7 as RBA set to raise interest rates for third month in a row
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1pt to 83.7 this week and is now a large 24.1pts below the same week a year ago, July 3/4, 2021 (107.8). Consumer Confidence is now 10.1pts below the 2022 weekly average of 93.8.
The RBA is this week expected to increase official interest rates by another 0.50% to 1.35%. If the RBA does increase official interest rates as expected this will be the third monthly increase in a row. This will be the first time this has happened for over a decade since May 2010 while the magnitude of the three increases taken together (+1.25% over three months) will be the largest three-month increase in official interest rates for nearly three decades since December 1994 (+2% over three months).
On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia. Driving the small deterioration in the index was more people saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items after the finish of the annual ‘End of Financial Year’ (EOFY) sales.
Current financial conditions
- Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 43% (up 1ppt), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator for over two years since March 2020).
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, fewer than a third of Australians, 30% (down 1ppt) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 31% (down 1ppt), that expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- However, only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 38% (down 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, only 13% (down 1ppt) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now just 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 47% (up 4ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
“Consumer confidence decreased 1.2% last week, driven by a 4ppt increase in the number of respondents who think it is a ‘bad time to buy’ a major household item. A possible reason for this could be the conclusion of End of Financial Year sales. Expectations of a further increase in the interest rate by the RBA at its meeting today could be another reason behind the dampened sentiment. Household inflation expectations rose 0.2ppt to 5.9% last week, exactly reversing its fall the week before.”
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
