ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3pts to 84.7 as buying intentions improve for EOFY Sales
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 3pts to 84.7 this week but despite the increase Consumer Confidence is still a significant 27.5pts below the same week a year ago, June 26/27, 2021 (112.2) and is now 9.5pts below the 2022 weekly average of 94.2.
On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, unchanged in Victoria and down in South Australia. Driving the improvement in the index was more confidence about personal financial situations over the next year and more people saying now is a ‘good time to buy major household items’.
Current financial conditions
- Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 42% (unchanged), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, nearly a third of Australians, 31% (up 4ppts) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 32% (down 1ppt), that expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- However, only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since September 2020) compared to 40% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since September 2020).
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, only 14% (up 2ppts) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19% (down 3ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now just 27% (up 3ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 43% (down 5ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
Consumer confidence increased 3.7% last week, possibly helped by the state budget initiatives in NSW and Queensland. Confidence increased by 4.3% and 5.2% in NSW and Queensland respectively. Household inflation expectations dropped 0.2ppt to 5.7%, despite an increase in the average petrol price over the week. The subindex capturing whether it is a good ‘time to buy a major household item’ has jumped 14.2% over the past two weeks and was the biggest driver of last week’s gain in confidence. The improvement in sentiment doesn’t mask the fact that it remains exceptionally weak, with all subindices well below neutral. We expect this week’s retail figures for May to confirm that spending is holding up despite low confidence.”
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
