ALP 53% leads the L-NP 47% and set to win the Election with a swing of 4.5% since the 2019 Federal Election
The ALP’s lead over the L-NP has been cut to 6% points as early voting began last week but it still holds a clear election winning lead before this week’s Federal Election: ALP 53% (down 1.5% points in a week) ahead of the L-NP 47% (up 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis.
Preferences of minor party voters have been allocated based on preference flows at the 2019 Federal Election according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted from May 9-15, 2022.
If a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won a majority.
Analysis by State shows the ALP leads in four States including NSW, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania while the L-NP leads in Queensland and South Australia.
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,366 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday May 9 – Sunday May 15, 2022. There were 6% of electors (down 1% point) who wouldn’t say who they support.
Primary support for both major parties is low at only 34% each for the ALP and L-NP
Primary support for the ALP was down by 1.5% points to 34% this week and is now level with the L-NP on 34%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 13% which would be the minor party’s best result at a Federal Election – beating the 11.8% it received just over a decade ago in 2010 by about 1% point.
Support for One Nation was unchanged on 4% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1%. Support for Other Parties was up 1% point to 5% while support for Independents was up 0.5% points to 9%.
If these figures are predictive of what happens at the Federal Election this will be the first time since 1906 that both major parties have received less than 40% of the vote at an election.
When looking at primary support, and including those who can’t say who they support, the ALP and L-NP both had the support of 32% of electors and there were 36% of people who either supported a minor party, independent or who couldn’t (or wouldn’t) say who they supported – a higher proportion of electors than supported either of the major parties.
Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in four of six States – including NSW & Victoria
Voting analysis by State has all been calculated based on how preferences flowed at the 2019 Federal Election. The results this week show the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in four States (NSW, Victoria, WA and Tasmania) with the L-NP leading in Queensland and SA.
The ALP leads in NSW on 52% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 48% (down 0.5% points).This result represents a swing of 3.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. A uniform swing of this magnitude in NSW would deliver the seat of Robertson to the ALP.
The ALP leads strongly in Victoria with the ALP on 57% (down 4% points) well ahead of the L-NP on 43% (up 4% points). This result represents a swing of 3.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election. A uniform swing of this magnitude in Victoria would deliver the seats of Chisholm and Higgins to the ALP.
The LNP leads in Queensland on 53% (down 0.5% points) ahead of the ALP on 47% (up 0.5% points). This result still represents a swing of 5.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. A uniform swing of this magnitude in Queensland would deliver the seats of Longman, Leichhardt, Dickson and Brisbane to the ALP.
Although from a small sample, the ALP has retained its lead in Western Australia on 54.5% (down 3% points) compared to the L-NP on 45.5% (up 3% points). This result represents a swing of 10% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. A uniform swing to the ALP of this magnitude in Western Australia would deliver the seats of Swan, Pearce and Hasluck to the ALP.
In South Australia, and again from a small sample, the L-NP on 51% is now ahead of the ALP on 49%. This result represents a swing of 1.7% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election and would result in no seats changing hands in South Australia.
In Tasmania, and again from a small sample, the ALP on 58% leads the L-NP on 42%, representing a swing of 2% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. A uniform swing of this magnitude to the ALP would deliver the seat of Bass to the ALP. The results from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll suggest the seats of Lingiari and Solomon in the Northern Territory would both be retained by the ALP.
ALP set to win a narrow majority based on either State-by-State swings or a uniform national swing
Combining the ‘State-by-State swings’ suggests the ALP is on track to win 11 seats around Australia which would deliver the ALP a narrow majority in Parliament with a total of 80 seats on the floor of Parliament.
A uniform swing of 4.5% nationally would produce a very similar result with the ALP winning 10 seats around Australia for a narrow Parliamentary majority with a total of 79 seats – although some of the seats changing hands would be slightly different.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence up 2pts to 83 – first increase since Easter
The weekly Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 2pts to 83 this week after two consecutive weeks of falls. However, there are still far more Australians, 49.5% (down 1.5% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just under a third of Australians, 32.5% (up 0.5% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Government Confidence is now below the neutral level of 100 in all six States but is clearly highest in South Australia at 99.5. Government Confidence is close to the national average in Queensland (85.5), Tasmania (84), New South Wales (83) and Victoria (82) and well below that in Western Australia at 77.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the latest Roy Morgan Poll shows a tightening race to the line but the ALP still holds an election-winning lead: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP in prime position for a victory at this week’s Federal Election but its lead has narrowed to 6% points: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% on a two party preferred basis when preferences are allocated based on preference flows at the 2019 Federal Election.
“An ALP victory with 53% of the two-party preferred vote represents a swing of 4.5% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election when the L-NP on 51.5% narrowly beat the ALP on 48.5%. However, the low support for the two major parties means there is still the prospect of Australians waking up to a hung Parliament on Sunday morning.
“A uniform swing of 4.5% to the ALP at this week’s Federal Election would deliver the ALP a net gain of 11 seats for a total of 80 seats in the House of Representatives – enough to win a small majority in the House in which 77 seats are needed to guarantee a majority on the floor of Parliament after appointing a Speaker. (76/150).
“The tight nature of this week’s Roy Morgan Poll means it is more important than ever for the ALP to finish strongly in the last few days of the campaign. The final Roy Morgan Poll the week prior to the 2019 Federal Election showed the ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis.
“A strong week of campaigning by Prime Minister Scott Morrison in 2019 garnered a 3.5% swing to the L-NP in the last week and an unexpected election victory for the Coalition. Morrison will be hoping to repeat the feat this week while ALP Leader Anthony Albanese will be hoping to retain the election-winning lead the Opposition has held all year.
“Prime Minister Morrison’s announcement at the Liberal campaign launch on Sunday that first home buyers will be able to withdraw up to 40% of their superannuation to contribute towards a housing deposit has sparked much debate about whether this policy can be the catalyst for another late swing to the Government.
“Although the effectiveness of the Coalition’s new housing policy is yet to be seen, when Roy Morgan asked whether Australians in financial difficulty should be able to access up to $20,000 of their superannuation money during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic – a large majority of 79% of Australians agreed they should be able to do so.
“Nevertheless, if the ALP is able to record a two-party preferred vote of 53% at this week’s Federal Election it will be the party’s highest vote share at a Federal Election since Bob Hawke’s victory at the 1983 Federal Election: ALP 53.2% cf. L-NP 46.8%.
“However, there is a big difference between the 1983 Federal Election and now. In 1983 there were no cross-benchers for new Prime Minister Bob Hawke to deal with in the House of Representatives. At this year’s Federal Election if the ALP fail to secure a majority of seats in the House of Representatives there could be eight or nine or even more cross-benchers to deal with in forming a minority government after the election.
“The reason there could be so many crossbenchers (there are currently six) is because the primary vote shares of the two major parties are so low – at only 34% each. This means 32% of voters are opting to vote for a minor party or independent. Support for the Greens is at 13% (which would be a record result for them) while a further 9% are indicating they want to vote for an independent and another 10% are picking another minor party.
“The high level of support for minor parties and independents means the cross-bench after the election could be the largest we have seen in Australia for decades. In fact, the last time the two major parties both received fewer than 40% of the vote at an Australian Federal Election was more than a century ago – at the 1906 Federal Election (Anti-Socialists 38.2% cf. Labour 36.6%).”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–May 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+. Preferences allocated by how people stated their preference until May 1, 2022. Preferences have been allocated by voting patterns at the 2019 Federal Election for results after May 1, 2022.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–May 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+. Preferences allocated by how people stated their preference until May 1, 2022. Preferences have been allocated by voting patterns at the 2019 Federal Election for results after May 1, 2022.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–May 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+. Preferences allocated by how people stated their preference until May 1, 2022. Preferences have been allocated by voting patterns at the 2019 Federal Election for results after May 1, 2022.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
