ANZ Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 6.5pts to 84.4 in April 2022
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 6.5pts to 84.4 in April, off its record low but still extremely pessimistic.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a ‘good time to buy a major household item’ increased slightly to 27% while exactly half of New Zealanders, 50%, say now is a ‘bad time to buy a major household item’.
- Inflation expectations fell back to 5.6%. House price inflation expectations eased from 2.7% to just 1.7%.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index recovered slightly in April. Over the month Omicron waned, but the RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate by 50bp and strong inflation was confirmed in the official data.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations bounced 9 points to -15%.
- A net 4% expect to be better off this time next year, up 13 points. Back in the black – it’s very unusual for this series to be negative, as it has been for the past two months.
- Households still think on balance that it’s a very bad time to buy a major household item (-23%, up 3 points). This is the single best indicator for retail spending in the survey.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook recovered 4 points to -41%, still deeply pessimistic. The five-year outlook lifted very slightly to -5%.
- House price inflation expectations fell from 2.7% to just 1.7%.
- CPI inflation expectations eased 0.4%pts to 5.6%. Expectations have been bouncing around the 6% level in recent months.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
