ALP holds a significant advantage as PM Scott Morrison calls the election for May 21: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%
A Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last week shows the ALP maintaining its strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP in the week Prime Minister Scott Morrison called this year’s Federal Election for Saturday May 21, 2022 in just under six weeks’ time.
The ALP is now on 57% (unchanged from a week ago) compared to the L-NP 43% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis.
If a Federal Election had been held on the weekend the ALP would have won a clear majority.
Analysis by State shows the ALP now leads in all six States on a two-party preferred basis and gained support in WA last week while the L-NP support increased slightly in Victoria, SA and Tasmania.
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,384 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday April 4-10, 2022. There were 6.5% of electors (down 0.5% points) who wouldn’t say who they support.
Support for the ALP and L-NP drops, but is up for minor parties: Greens and One Nation
Primary support for the ALP dropped 3.5% points to 36% in the week the election was called and now lead the L-NP by 3.5% points on primary support as L-NP support was down 0.5% points at 32.5%.
The loss of support for the major parties meant an increase in support for the minor parties with Greens support up 1.5% points to 12.5%. Support for One Nation also increased, up 1.5% points to 5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was up 0.5% points to 1.5%.
Support for Other Parties was up 1% point to 4% while support for Independents was down 0.5% points to 8.5%.
Now a total of 31.5% (up 4% points) of Australians say they will vote for either a minor party or an independent and 6.2% points higher than the 2019 Federal Election.
Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all six States – including Queensland
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six States during the past week and retaining a narrow two-party preferred lead in Queensland.
The ALP’s lead in NSW is unchanged from a week ago with the ALP now on 55% (unchanged) compared to the L-NP on 45% (unchanged). This result represents a large swing of 7.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Victoria has been slightly reduced from a week ago with the ALP now on 58% (down 2.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 42% (up 2.5% points). This result represents a swing of 4.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has retained a narrow advantage in Queensland with the ALP on 50.5% (unchanged) now just ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (unchanged). This result represents a large swing of 8.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has increased its lead in Western Australia with the ALP on 63.5% (up 4.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 36.5% (down 4.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 19.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
In South Australia, there has been a swing back to the L-NP this week with support for the ALP on 53% (down 3% points from a week ago) still clearly ahead of the L-NP on 47% (up 3% points). This represents a swing of 2.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP has a large lead in Tasmania with the ALP 69% cf. L-NP 31%, a swing of 10% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence up 3pts to 84 in the week PM Morrison calls the election
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 3pts to 84 in the week Prime Minister Scott Morrison set the date for the election as Saturday May 21, 2022.
Although a rise in Government Confidence usually goes hand-in-hand with a rise in support for the Government, the continuing large drop in the average petrol price, down by around 40 cents per litre over the last few weeks, explains the small gain in Government Confidence despite support for the L-NP remaining unchanged.
Now just over a third of Australians, 36% (up 3% points), of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while a majority of 52% (unchanged) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Government Confidence remains below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of over 50pts between different States. Government Confidence is above average and highest in Western Australia on 98, South Australia on 97, New South Wales on 85 and Victoria on 85.
In the other two States Government Confidence is below average at 80 in Queensland and well below average at only 46.5 in Tasmania. Only 19% of Tasmanians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 72.5% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ in the week that Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein unexpectedly announced his resignation as Premier less than a year after winning last year’s State Election.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the ALP starts in a strong position as PM Scott Morrison ‘fires the starting gun’ for the official campaign with the Federal Election set to be held in just under six weeks on Saturday May 21, 2022:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 57% (unchanged from a week ago) maintaining its strong lead over the L-NP 43% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis in the week Prime Minister Scott Morrison finally announced the date of the election.
“Notably there were swings away from both major parties on primary votes this week with ALP support down 3.5% points to 36% and L-NP support down 0.5% points to 32.5%. Support for the minor parties was up strongly with support for the Greens up 1.5% points to 12.5%, support for One Nation up 1.5% points to 5% and support for United Australia up 0.5% points to 1.5%.
“Overall nearly a third of Australians, 31.5% (up 4% points on a week ago), said they would vote for a minor party such as the Greens, One Nation or United Australia or an Independent. Support for Independents this week was at 8.5%, down 0.5% points on a week ago.
“Thus far it appears the Government’s decision to cut the petrol excise in half, by 22.2 cents per litre, has had little impact on voting intention and hasn’t resulted in a lift in support for the Morrison Government. Since reaching a high of $2.13 per litre in the week to March 20, 2022, petrol prices have now dropped by nearly 40 cents per litre to only $1.74 per litre this week.
“The L-NP starts this campaign well behind on a two-party preferred basis but they will be heartened by their performance only three years ago in 2019. At the same point in the 2019 campaign the ALP enjoyed a clear advantage over the L-NP of 5% points: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%. The final result showed the L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% meaning the L-NP picked up a swing of 4% points during the course of the campaign.
“A similar performance by the L-NP over the next six weeks would bring the prospect of a hung Parliament into view as to be sure of gaining a majority the ALP needs to aim for a decisive two-party preferred victory of ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%. Anything less than a 5% point swing to the ALP at the election could well result in a hung Parliament with Greens and Independents forming the crucial voting block in the lower House to determine the election’s winner.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Female electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Male electors 18+.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
