ALP extends lead as Prime Minister Morrison under attack from NSW Liberal Senator Fierravanti-Wells: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%

A Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last week shows the ALP extending its large lead over the L-NP after NSW Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells criticised Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s credentials to be Prime Minister on the night of the Federal Budget.

The ALP is now on 57% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP 43% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win a clear majority.

Analysis by State shows the ALP now leads in all six States on a two-party preferred basis and gained support in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania while L-NP support increased only in South Australia.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted in the week of the Federal Budget but any ‘bounce’ the Government may have expected didn’t happen after Senator Fierravanti-Wells attacked Prime Minister Morrison’s character in a blistering speech to the Senate later that same night.

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,367 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday March 28 - Sunday April 3, 2022. There were a higher than usual 7% of electors (up 2% points) who wouldn’t say who they support.

ALP leads L-NP by 6.5% points on primary vote as bullying allegations surround PM Morrison

Primary support for the ALP increased 4% points to 39.5% (all from minor parties and independents) in the first week of April as bullying allegations swirled around Prime Minister Scott Morrison following last week’s Federal Budget. The ALP now leads the L-NP by 6.5% points on primary support as L-NP support was unchanged at 33%.

As ALP support increased Greens support dropped 1.5% points to 11%. Support for One Nation was unchanged at 3.5%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1%. Support for Other Parties decreased by 1.5% points to 3% while support for Independents was down 1% point to 9%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all six States – including Queensland

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six States during the past week after regaining a narrow two-party preferred lead in Queensland.

The ALP’s lead in NSW has increased from a week ago with the ALP now on 55% (up 2% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 45% (down 2% points). This result represents a large swing of 7.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP’s lead in Victoria is virtually unchanged from a week ago with the ALP now on 60.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 39.5% (down 0.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 7.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has regained a narrow advantage in Queensland with the ALP on 50.5% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) now just ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (down 1.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has increased its lead in Western Australia with the ALP on 59% (up 2% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 41% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 14.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia, there has been a swing back to the L-NP following two consecutive swings to the ALP surrounding the recent ALP State Election victory. Support for the ALP is now on 56% (down 7.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP on 44% (up 7.5% points).

Despite this week’s strong swing to the L-NP in South Australia the result is still more favourable to the ALP than it was three weeks ago. This represents a swing of 5.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP has a large lead in Tasmania with the ALP 74% cf. L-NP 26%, a swing of 15% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence up 1pt to 81 after last week’s Federal Budget and following a plunge in the petrol price over the last week

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 1pt to 81 in early April. Although a rise in Government Confidence usually goes hand-in-hand with a rise in support for the Government, the large drop in the average petrol price, down by around 30 cents per litre over the last two weeks, explains the small gain in Government Confidence despite primary support for the L-NP remaining unchanged.

Now a third of Australians, 33% (up 0.5% points), of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while a majority of 52% (down 0.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Government Confidence remains below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of nearly 30pts between different States. Government Confidence is above average and highest in Western Australia on 94.5, Queensland on 88, South Australia on 85.5 and Victoria on 82.5.

In the other two States Government Confidence is below average at 77 in New South Wales and well below average at only 65.5 in Tasmania. Only 25% of Tasmanians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 59.5% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says NSW Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells’ blistering attack on Prime Minister Scott Morrison as well as allegations of ‘skullduggery’ by Morrison to win pre-selection in the seat of Cook in 2007 have blunted any ‘Budget bounce’ for the L-NP:

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Female electors 18+.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Male electors 18+.

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