ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down slightly by 1.4pts to 101.8 in the third week of February
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreased 1.4pts to 101.8 during the third week of February. Consumer Confidence is now 7.4pts below the same week a year ago, February 20/21, 2021 (109.2), but remains just above the 2022 weekly average of 101.5.
Consumer Confidence this week was down around the country with the largest decreases in NSW and Tasmania. Bucking the trend, Victoria’s Consumer Confidence increase 3pts (107.8).
Driving the decreases were falls in sentiment regarding the performance of the Australian economy over the next year and whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy’ major household items.
Current financial conditions
- Now 27% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 30% (up 1ppt), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to 19% (up 2ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
Current economic conditions
- However, just 15% (down 2ppts), of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 21% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, 19% (up 1ppt), of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (up 2ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Sentiment towards buying intentions has weakened slightly with 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 34% (up 2 ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
Inflation expectations rose 0.1ppt to 5.1% last week, its highest since December 2014. With petrol prices at record highs during the past few weeks the lift in inflation expectations is not surprising. Consumer confidence dropped 1.4% despite the easing of COVID restrictions in NSW and the imminent reopening of international borders to tourists. The expectations of higher inflation might have had a dampening effect on overall sentiment. Confidence dropped by 5.6% in NSW, 0.7% in QLD, 0.8% in SA and 2.8% in WA, while it increased in Victoria by 2.9%.”
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
