ALP (56.5%) held a commanding two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (43.5%) BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine

ALP support was at 56.5% (down 0.5% points since mid-February) cf. L-NP on 43.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine last week according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention. Interviewing for this Roy Morgan Poll was conducted during the 10 days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began from Monday February 14 – Wednesday February 23, 2022.
Roy Morgan will release a special Roy Morgan Poll later this week tracking the political response of Australians over the first week of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including interviewing from Thursday February 24 – Wednesday March 2, 2022.
The result is virtually unchanged from the ALP’s large lead in early February (ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%) and if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Harold Holt at the 1966 Federal Election (L-CP 56.9% cf. ALP 43.1%).
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 2,261 Australian electors aged 18+ from February 14-23, 2022 prior to Russia launching an invasion of Ukraine on Thursday February 24, 2022. There were 6.5% of electors (up 0.5% points) who wouldn't say who they support.

ALP leads L-NP by 5% points on primary vote before Russian invasion of Ukraine

Primary support for the ALP was down 1% point to 37.5% in late February and is now 5% points ahead of the L-NP, down 0.5% points to 32.5%. Support for the Greens was up 1% point to 12.5%.

Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3.5%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged on 1.5%. Support for Other Parties was up 0.5% points to 4% while support for Independents was up 0.5% points to 8.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in five States, ‘dead-even’ in Queensland

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States, but the two parties are ‘dead-even’ on 50% each in Queensland.

The ALP’s lead in NSW has been cut since mid-February with the ALP now on 56.5% (down 2.5% points since mid-February) compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (up 2.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has increased its lead in Victoria and is now on 60% (up 2.5% points since mid-February) compared to the L-NP on 40% (down 2.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The two parties are ‘dead-even’ in Queensland with the L-NP on 50% (up 1.5% points since mid-February) level with the ALP on 50% (down 1.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP’s lead in Western Australia has been trimmed slightly again with the ALP on 52% (down 1.5% points since mid-February) cf. L-NP 48% (up 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 7.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP is on 59.5% (unchanged since mid-February) well ahead of the L-NP on 40.5% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a large swing of 8.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 75% cf. L-NP 25%, representing a large swing of 19% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased by 1.5pts to 88 in late February

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 1.5ps to 88 in late February. Now 35% (unchanged) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 47%, down 1.5% points, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Government Confidence is now below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of around 20pts between different States. Government Confidence before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine was highest in Victoria and Western Australia – both on 92.5.

In three States Government Confidence was just below the national average at 86.5 in New South Wales, 86 in Queensland and 84 in South Australia. Government Confidence remains well below the national average in Tasmania at only 72.5.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks set to completely re-shape the political stage in Australia in the run-up to this year’s Federal Election – however before the invasion happened the ALP were well ahead of the L-NP:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention – which was completely conducted before the Russian invasion of Ukraine which began on Thursday February 24 – shows the ALP 56.5% (down 0.5% points since mid-February) well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (up 0.5% points).

“This is virtually unchanged from the ALP lead in mid-February and the ALP has maintained a lead of at least 10% points on a two-party preferred basis for over three months since mid-November when the ALP 55.5% led the L-NP 44.5% by 11% points.

“The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating continued to languish in late February at only 88 with just 35% of Australians saying the country was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 47% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. All six States had Government Confidence Ratings below the neutral level of 100.

“However, with the ‘Omicron wave’ now receding and even Western Australia finally opening its domestic borders this week Australia is moving quickly beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Mask restrictions have been dropped in New South Wales and Victoria and there are set to be further relaxations of restrictions in other States over the next few weeks.

“The end of the COVID-19 pandemic is a chance for the L-NP Federal Government to reset the political agenda after they've been on the nose since the ‘Delta Wave’ hit Sydney and the rest of the East Coast in mid-June 2021. At the time the ‘Delta Wave’ began the two parties were in a virtual dead-heat nationally: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.

“The other significant event is the Russian invasion of Ukraine which began last week. In times of international conflict and discord the population traditionally swing being the incumbent Government as a way to unify the country in tackling a potential external threat. We saw the same reaction at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic when support for the L-NP soared during 2020.

“An Australian Federal Election is due to be held by mid-May and the international conflict started by the Russian invasion of Ukraine could well serve as a catalyst to strengthen support for the L-NP Government in the lead-up to the Federal Election.”

Electors were asked: 

“If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? 

and 

“Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

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