ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreases 1.9pts to 99.9 as Western Australia’s border remains closed
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreased 1.9pts to 99.9 during the first week of February. Consumer Confidence is still a significant 11.5pts below the same week a year ago, February 6/7, 2021 (111.4) and now just below the 2022 weekly average of 101.1.
Western Australia’s border closure to the rest of Australia, and the world, was planned to be reopened on February 5th but was delayed indefinitely. This same week Consumer Confidence has decreased 9pts in WA and 14pts in Perth indicating dissatisfaction with the continuing border closure.Driving the small decrease were changes in sentiment regarding the performance of the Australians’ personal finances compared to a year ago and over the next year.
Current financial conditions
- Now just 23% (down 4 ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 32% (up 4ppts), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward a decreasing plurality of Australians, 35% (down 2 ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to 21% (up 3ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
Current economic conditions
- However, just 14% (down 1 ppt), of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 26% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, just under a fifth of Australians, 19% (unchanged), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 16% (down 2 ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Sentiment towards buying intentions has remains largely the same, with 36% (unchanged) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 33% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
Consumer confidence decreased 1.9% last week, falling back below neutral. This coincided with much publicised commentary from the RBA Governor that there was now a “plausible scenario” in which the cash rate went up in 2022. That is a big shift from Lowe’s previous statements that interest rates may not go up until 2024. Ratings of both ‘current’ and ‘financial’ conditions dropped to levels last seen in late 2020. Among the states, WA suffered the biggest loss, with sentiment 8.1% lower, which could be influenced by COVID numbers and bushfires close to the towns of Bridgetown and Denmark. Confidence also dropped in NSW (-1.7%), Queensland (-3.4%) and SA (-1.9%), while it rose in Victoria (+1.5%).
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
