ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 0.6pts to 97.7 in January
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 0.6pts to 97.7 in January
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 0.6pts to 97.7 in January
- The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 3ppts points to 37%, which bad time to buy was unchanged at 40%, leaving a net rating of -4, back in the red.
- Inflation expectations drifted slightly higher to 5.8%. House price inflation expectations were unchanged at 5.3%.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index was unchanged at 98 in January, well under its long-term average of just shy of 120. The vast majority of the survey was conducted before confirmation of Omicron in the community.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 5 points to -4%.
- A net 14% expect to be better off this time next year, up 2. This is an unusually low reading outside a recession.
- On balance, households think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item (-4, down 4 points). This is the best retail spending indicator in the
- survey.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 1 point to -21%, a very low level. The five-year outlook lifted 4 points to +3%.
- House price inflation expectations were unchanged at 5.3%, with a mix of rises and falls across regions.
- CPI inflation expectations ticked up 0.2%pts from 5.6% to 5.8%, now slightly under actual CPI inflation, which is unheard of. Households have nailed inflation forecasting in the past year. Respect.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
