ALP (56.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (43.5%) in late January as ‘Summer reset’ for Government fails to materialise

ALP support is now at 56.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-January) cf. L-NP on 43.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted during the second half of January.

The swing to the ALP came as the Government continued to struggle with a surge in cases of the highly infectious ‘Omicron strain’ of COVID-19. Although cases peaked in mid-January the impact on businesses continued throughout the month as millions of Australians were forced into isolation either because they were infected with the virus or forced to isolate due to being a close contact of a confirmed case.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Harold Holt at the 1966 Federal Election (L-CP 56.9% cf. ALP 43.1%).

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 2,783 Australian electors aged 18+ from January 17-30, 2022. There were 7.5% of electors (up 0.5% points from mid-January) who can’t say who they support.

ALP extends its primary voting intention lead over the L-NP in late January while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party more than doubles to 2%

Primary support for the ALP increased 0.5% points to 37.5% in late January and is now 4.5% points ahead of the L-NP on 33%, down 1.5% points from mid-January. Support for the Greens dropped 0.5% points to 11.5% in late January.

Support for One Nation increased 0.5% points to 3.5%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was up 1.5% points to 2%. Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4.5% while support for Independents dropped 0.5% points to 8%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all six States

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six States – and importantly with large leads in the key States of New South Wales and Victoria.

The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 59% (unchanged since mid-January) compared to the L-NP on 41% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 5.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP lead in NSW has been trimmed since mid-January with the ALP now on 54% (down 4% points since mid-January) compared to the L-NP on 46% (up 4% points). This result represents a swing of 6.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has now regained a narrow two-party preferred lead in Queensland with the ALP on 51.5% (up 3% points since mid-January) ahead of the LNP on 48.5% (down 3% points). This result represents a swing of 9.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has increased its lead in Western Australia with the ALP on 55.5% (up 4.5% points since mid-January) cf. L-NP 44.5% (down 4.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 11.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP is on 64% (up 3.5% points since mid-January) well ahead of the L-NP on 36% (down 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 13.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%, representing a swing of 5.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased by 1.5pts to 84.5 in late January

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 1.5ps to 84.5 in late January. Now only 35% (up 1% point) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 50.5%, down 0.5% points, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

However, there remains a wide divergence of almost 40pts between different States with Government Confidence above 100 only in Western Australia at 102 while being the neutral level of 100 in all five other States. Western Australia is now the only State with closed borders, and also the only State without a significant outbreak of the ‘Omicron strain’ of COVID-19.

Most other States are clustered around the national average led by Victoria in second place on 87, Queensland in third place on 84, New South Wales in fourth place on 82 and South Australia just behind in fifth place on 80.

Far behind any other State is Tasmania which has a Government Confidence Rating of only 64 with only 25% of Tasmanians saying the country is heading in the ‘right direction’ compared to 61% that say the country is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says the ALP has strengthened its lead over the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis as the Summer holidays come to an end and the issues surrounding the ‘Omicron strain’ of COVID-19 begin to recede:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 56.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-January) increasing its lead over the L-NP 43.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis as the traditional holiday period came to an end.

“The Federal L-NP Government had looked to the summer holiday period, and a re-opened Australian economy, as a chance for a reset before this year’s Federal Election – most likely set to be held in just over three months’ time in mid-May.

“However, the ‘reset’ never arrived as the Omicron strain of COVID-19 entered Australia in early December and throughout the holiday period ‘rampaged’ around the country. Over 2 million Australians contracted the highly contagious Omicron strain during December 2021/ January 2022.

“Thankfully, the surge in cases of the Omicron strain has receded in recent weeks but there are still a significant number of hospitalisations due to the large outbreak and more Australians have died with COVID-19 so far in 2022 than throughout either 2020 or 2021.

“The surge in cases of COVID-19 caused many problems for the Australian economy with millions of Australians forced to isolate for periods of 1-2 weeks either because they were infected with the virus, or were a close contact of someone else with the virus.

“The problems faced by businesses during this period with, supply chains disrupted and disorganised, has led to shortages of key goods such as meat and poultry at supermarkets while the fear of catching the ‘Omicront strain’ has kept many people at home – starving hospitality and retail businesses of customers for weeks.

“All these issues have clearly impacted support for the Morrison Government and the ALP now leads the L-NP in all six States on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP’s biggest lead in the four major States is in Victoria with the ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41% on a two-party preferred basis, however the ALP also has sizeable leads in both WA: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% and NSW: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

“As time runs short in the lead-up to this year’s Federal Election, the L-NP Government is running out of time to reverse the trends that have been evident since Sydney’s Delta outbreak began more than six months ago in mid-June 2021.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Jan. 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.