ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down by 5.1pts to 104.5 in September – lowest for a year
New Zealand Consumer confidence was down by 5.1pts to 104.5 in September, led by a decline in the ‘current conditions’ index.
New Zealand Consumer confidence was down by 5.1pts to 104.5 in September, led by a decline in the 'current conditions' index.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 20 points to -7.
- Inflation expectations were steady at 5.1%. House price inflation expectations eased very slightly to 6.1%.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current financial situations fell 5 points to +7%.
- A net 24% expect to be better off this time next year, up 2.
- A net 7% think it is a bad time to buy a major household item, down 20 points. This is the best retail indicator in the survey, but it makes sense that some of this hit will be lockdown-related and temporary.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 8 points to -13%. The five-year outlook rose 5 points to +12%.
- House price inflation expectations eased 0.2%pts to 6.1%. They rose in Auckland, Wellington and the South Island ex-Canterbury, and eased elsewhere.
- CPI inflation expectations were steady at 5.1%, remaining extremely high versus a more typical historical reading of around 3½%.
Households’ response to whether it was a good time to buy a major household item dropped sharply in September. Some of this may reflect temporary lockdown impacts, rather than a rethink of spend or save decisions, but many regions that are back in Level 2 dropped sharply as well.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
