Australian unemployment plummets to 8.7% in September – as lockdowns of over half of Australia’s population continue
The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.27 million Australians were unemployed in September, down 97,000 on August, for an unemployment rate of 8.7%, while under-employment was down 0.2% points to 8.0% (1.16 million).
The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.27 million Australians were unemployed in September, down 97,000 on August, for an unemployment rate of 8.7%, while under-employment was down 0.2% points to 8.0% (1.16 million).
- Workforce increases to 14.57 million in September, but still below pre-lockdown level in June:
The workforce in September was 14,573,000 (up 170,000) – comprised of 13,308,000 employed Australians (an increase of 267,000) and 1,265,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 97,000). Despite the increase the workforce is below its level in June before the current lockdowns.
- Employment in September increased to 13.3 million driven by increasing part-time employment:
Australian employment was up 267,000 to 13,308,000 in September driven by the increase in part-time employment, up 273,000 to 4,660,000. In contrast, full-time employment was virtually unchanged in September at 8,648,000.
- Unemployment dropped in September and is now at its lowest since the pandemic began:
1,265,000 Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce), down 97,000 from August. Unemployment is now at its lowest since early March 2020 (7.3%) when the pandemic began. Driving the fall was far fewer more people looking for part-time work (down 135,000 to 735,000) while there was an increase in people looking for full-time work (up 38,000 to 530,000).
Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2021)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – September 2021. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.7% for September is over 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for August 2021 of 4.5%.
However, the ABS figure for August counts as employed an additional 248,900 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘economic reasons’ and 371,300 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘other reasons’ – such as being forced out of work by mandatory lockdowns.
If these 620,200 non-workers are added back the ABS unemployment estimate for June increases to 1.24 million (9.1%). The ABS also claims there are nearly 1.27 million Australians (9.3%) under-employed for a total of over 2.51 million unemployed or under-employed (18.4% of the workforce) – a very similar estimate to the latest Roy Morgan unemployment and under-employment estimate.
- Under-employment was also down in September despite increasing part-time employment:
In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.16 million Australians (8.0% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, a drop of 12,000 (down 0.2% points) from August.
In total 2.43 million Australians (16.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, a drop of 108,000 on August. Overall, total unemployment and under-employment was at its lowest since early March 2020 (2.16 million) just prior to the start of the pandemic.
Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown was implemented, in September 2021 there were over 260,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+1.1% points) even though overall employment (13,308,000) is still higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the lockdown of Australia’s two largest cities continued throughout September although both the NSW and Victorian State Governments have now outlined plans for re-opening beginning in October as the lockdowns come to an end:
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for September show unemployment falling 0.8% points to 8.7% and the measure is now at its lowest since February 2020 (8.3%). However, the drops in unemployment over the last two months, driven by declines in NSW and Victoria, are not a true reflection of the labour market with more than half of Australia’s population currently in lockdown.
“The workforce increased in September but is still well below its level in June 2021 before the current lockdowns began in Greater Sydney. Driving the increase in the workforce was a rise in part-time employment – which increased in both New South Wales and Victoria and was up 273,000 to over 4.6 million nation-wide. In contrast full-time employment was virtually unchanged from a month ago.
“The current lockdowns in Sydney and Canberra are due to end by mid-October while the lockdown of Melbourne is projected to end in the final week of October – with all dates subject to the rates of full vaccination. The end of the lockdowns in Australia’s two largest cities will turn the focus towards the existing State border closures of Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.
“The latest remarks in the past few days by Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein that his State won’t open up until 90% of its population are fully vaccinated echoes remarks made by Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and WA Premier Mark McGowan.
“A target of 90% of the population fully vaccinated is far higher than the plan outlined by national cabinet for Australia to open up when 80% of the population is fully vaccinated. However, although the national cabinet plan called for the end of lockdowns at 80% full vaccination there is no reference in the plan relating to re-opening State borders.
“These circumstances suggest when NSW, Victoria and the ACT re-open their economies in October and November, possibly including the resumption of international travel soon after, it may well be easier to travel to London or Los Angeles than Brisbane or Perth.
“The end of lockdowns in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra will also bring an end to continuing Commonwealth wage subsidies. However, the experience of a year ago suggests that the savings many workers have made while being forced to work from home for the last few months should lead to a surge in consumer spending in retail and hospitality industries over the last few months of this year.
“Combined with the closed State borders this should lead to the increased spending being concentrated in the states emerging from lockdown – NSW and Victoria – and provide a boost to economic growth in these two States in the run-up to Christmas.
“This may be an optimistic view but it likely aligns with the belief in Federal Government and why the decision has been made to end the wage subsidies when 80% of the population is fully vaccinated and out of lockdown.
“The expected surge in spending in NSW and Victoria should underpin strong growth in November and December which would be expected to support employment growth in these two States over the next few months post-lockdown.
“The likely losers of this increased spending are the tourism industries of Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania which could well miss out on a ‘bumper summer’ if their respective State Premiers decide to keep their State borders closed until well into 2022.”
Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates
|
Unemployed or ‘Under-employed’* |
Unemployed |
Unemployed looking for |
‘Under-employed’* |
|||||
|
Full-time |
Part-time |
|||||||
|
2020 |
‘000 |
% |
‘000 |
% |
‘000 |
‘000 |
‘000 |
% |
|
Jan-Mar 2020 |
2,692 |
19.1 |
1,417 |
10.1 |
638 |
779 |
1,275 |
9.0 |
|
Apr-Jun 2020 |
3,466 |
24.6 |
2,099 |
14.9 |
937 |
1,162 |
1,367 |
9.7 |
|
Jul-Sep 2020 |
3,237 |
22.7 |
1,865 |
13.1 |
769 |
1,096 |
1,373 |
9.6 |
|
Oct-Dec 2020 |
3,064 |
21.5 |
1,738 |
12.2 |
789 |
949 |
1,326 |
9.3 |
|
2021 |
||||||||
|
Jan-Mar 2021 |
2,971 |
20.6 |
1,750 |
12.1 |
717 |
1,033 |
1,222 |
8.5 |
|
Apr-Jun 2021 |
2,688 |
18.3 |
1,398 |
9.5 |
574 |
824 |
1,290 |
8.8 |
|
Jul-Sep 2021 |
2,573 |
17.7 |
1,350 |
9.3 |
547 |
803 |
1,224 |
8.4 |
|
Months |
||||||||
|
August 2020 |
3,270 |
22.8 |
1,980 |
13.8 |
768 |
1,212 |
1,290 |
9.0 |
|
September 2020 |
3,158 |
22.3 |
1,828 |
12.9 |
732 |
1,096 |
1,330 |
9.4 |
|
October 2020 |
3,147 |
22.2 |
1,810 |
12.8 |
790 |
1,020 |
1,337 |
9.4 |
|
November 2020 |
2,964 |
21.0 |
1,680 |
11.9 |
779 |
901 |
1,284 |
9.1 |
|
December 2020 |
3,081 |
21.4 |
1,724 |
12.0 |
797 |
927 |
1,357 |
9.4 |
|
January 2021 |
3,118 |
21.7 |
1,680 |
11.7 |
692 |
988 |
1,438 |
10.0 |
|
February 2021 |
3,068 |
21.0 |
1,930 |
13.2 |
790 |
1,140 |
1,138 |
7.8 |
|
March 2021 |
2,728 |
19.0 |
1,639 |
11.4 |
668 |
971 |
1,089 |
7.6 |
|
April 2021 |
2,664 |
18.3 |
1,307 |
9.0 |
593 |
714 |
1,357 |
9.3 |
|
May 2021 |
2,749 |
18.9 |
1,493 |
10.3 |
558 |
935 |
1,256 |
8.6 |
|
June 2021 |
2,651 |
17.9 |
1,394 |
9.4 |
570 |
824 |
1,257 |
8.5 |
|
July 2021 |
2,756 |
18.8 |
1,422 |
9.7 |
619 |
803 |
1,334 |
9.1 |
|
August 2021 |
2,537 |
17.7 |
1,362 |
9.5 |
492 |
870 |
1,175 |
8.2 |
|
September 2021 |
2,428 |
16.7 |
1,265 |
8.7 |
530 |
735 |
1,163 |
8.0 |
*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 784,153 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and September 2021 and includes 6,031 telephone and online interviews in September 2021. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.
Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.
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Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – September 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – September 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – September 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
