Support for Labour and Act NZ increases in September as Auckland lockdown extended

Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government increased 3.5% points to 55% in September driven by an increase in support for the Labour Party, up by 6% points to 45.5% as the lockdown in New Zealand’s largest city was extended throughout September. This is the highest level of support for Labour for six months since March 2021. Support for the Greens was down 2.5% points to 9.5%.

The governing parties are now 14% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 41%, up 0.5% points since August. The increase was driven by another rise in support for Act NZ up by 3% points to 16%. This is a new record high in support for Act NZ. In contrast, support for National was down 2% points to 23%, the lowest since March 2021. Support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 2%.

A small minority of only 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 1.5% and support for New Zealand First is down 1% point to 1.5% in September.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 940 electors during September. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed there are 5%, down 2% points, that didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 10pts to 125 in September

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 10pts in September to 125 to be at its highest since May 2021 as the Auckland lockdown was extended throughout September.

In September a majority of 57% (up 4.5% points) of New Zealand electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to under a third, 32% (down 5.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was down by 5.1pts to 104.5 in September and is only slightly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 103.7 on September 25/26, 2021 as Australia continues to battle outbreaks of COVID-19 in Sydney and Melbourne.

Women continue to favour Labour-Greens while men favour National-Act NZ

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies with the massive edge in support that the Labour Party receives from women. Nearly two-thirds of women (64.5%) support either Labour (54%) or the Greens (10.5%) compared to only 46% of men supporting either Labour (37.5%) or the Greens (8.5%) – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 16.5% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party among women.

Men are more likely to support the Parliamentary opposition with a majority of 50.5% supporting either National (25.5%), Act NZ (22.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%) compared to under a third, 31.5%, of Women supporting either National (21%), Act NZ (9.5%) or the Maori Party (1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 132.5 for Women compared to 117 for men

The trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which show 59% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 54.5% of men but only 26.5% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 37.5% of men.

Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 132.5 for women compared to only 117 for men – a gap of 15.5 points.

Party vote analysis by Gender

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the extended lockdown in Auckland and restrictions in other parts of New Zealand have driven support back up for the governing Labour Party in a repeat of the trend seen in early 2020:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – September 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – September 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – September 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).