ALP (54%) increases lead over L-NP (46%) – as Melbourne and Sydney lockdowns continue

ALP support has increased to 54% (up 0.5% points since early August) cf. L-NP on 46% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis after Melbourne’s sixth lockdown was extended, Sydney’s lockdown was extended to the whole State of NSW and the ACT entered lockdown for the first time in over a year, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.

This is the largest two-party preferred lead for the ALP since the national bushfires crisis of early 2020. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily elected with the largest share of the vote since the 1977 Federal Election won by Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser with 54.6% of the vote.

Interviewing for the latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of August 7/8 & 14/15, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,747 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP and ALP is tied at 37.5%

Primary support for the L-NP was up 0.5% points since early August to 37.5% and is again dead level with the ALP, also up 0.5% points to 37.5%. Greens support was unchanged at 12.5%.

Support for One Nation was up 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others was down by 1.5% points to 9%.

Voting Intention by State shows ALP ahead in Victoria, NSW, WA, SA & Tasmania

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in Australia’s two largest States of Victoria and NSW and also holding leads in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. The LNP leads only in Queensland.

The ALP has its largest lead in Victoria on 60% (up 0.5% points since early August) compared to the L-NP on 40% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Victoria entered its sixth lockdown just before interviewing for this survey began.

This result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has also built on its narrow two-party preferred lead in NSW with the ALP on 52% (up 1% point since early August) cf. L-NP on 48% (down 1% point) which represents a swing of 3.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP has its strongest result in Queensland with the LNP on 52% (unchanged since early August) cf. ALP 48% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite the LNP’s lead this represents a substantial swing of 6.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has also regained the lead in Western Australia with the ALP on 54.5% (up 6% points since early August) cf. L-NP on 45.5% (down 6% points). This result represents a large swing of 10.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP holds a two-party preferred lead in the smaller States with the ALP 54.5% (down 1% point since mid-July) cf. L-NP 45.5% (up 1% point) in South Australia. This represents a swing of 3.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. In Tasmania the ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% - a swing of 1% point to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence is in negative territory at 97 in mid-August

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 97 in mid-August, up 1pt since early August. Now 41% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, up 1% point since early August, while an unchanged 44% say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest Government Confidence Ratings by State paint a contrasting picture with Government Confidence well below the neutral level of 100 in locked down NSW and Victoria and tourism-dependent Tasmania but in positive territory above 100 in the three other States.

Government Confidence in Victoria is at only 90 in mid-August as the State battles the Delta strain with an unprecedented sixth lockdown. This lockdown has now been extended until at least early September with a curfew re-introduced for the first time since Victoria’s long second lockdown in 2020.

Government Confidence is NSW is only slightly better at 93 in mid-August as the State battles the largest outbreak of COVID-19 since Victoria’s second wave during 2020. Government Confidence is lowest of all in tourism-dependent Tasmania at only 89 in mid-August.

In contrast, Western Australia has the highest Government Confidence Rating of 112.5 and has been the only mainland State without a lockdown during the last month. Just behind is South Australia with a Government Confidence Rating of 109.5 following a short and sharp lockdown in late July.

Queensland also has a positive Government Confidence Rating of 102 in mid-August with the early part of the interviewing period impacted by a short one-week lockdown in South-East Queensland implemented in late July into early August.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the ALP has increased its lead over the L-NP to an election-winning 54% cf. 46% as the lockdowns of over 10 million people in Sydney and Melbourne continue with both cities set to be locked down well into September:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the Morrison Government dropping further behind the Opposition on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP on 54% (up 0.5% points since early August) now well ahead of the L-NP on 46% (down 0.5% points) and with its widest lead since early February 2020 during the midst of the national bushfire crisis.

“The longer the lockdowns of Australia’s two largest cities continue the more the focus turns to the slow vaccine roll-out around the country which is the responsibility of the Federal Government. The ALP enjoys a huge advantage in Victoria with the ALP on 60% cf L-NP 40% on a two-party preferred basis and the ALP also leads in NSW: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%.

“The ALP also leads on a two-party preferred basis in WA (ALP: 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%), SA (ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%) and Tasmania (ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%). The only exception is Queensland in which the LNP 52% leads the ALP 48% on a two-party preferred basis – but even in Queensland this represents a large swing of 6.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

“As of this week the latest Health Department figures show 15.9 million vaccine doses have been administered to 49% of Australians aged 16+. A closer look at the vaccination data shows 83% of Australians aged 70+ and 72% of those aged 50+ have had at least one vaccine dose while 53% of people aged 70+ and 39% of those aged 50+ are fully vaccinated.

“However, the key target is the full vaccination of Australians aged 16+. Only 27% of people aged 16+ are now fully vaccinated which is well short of the 70% and 80% targets outlined as the key to ending restrictions and lockdowns..
“To reach the threshold of 70% fully vaccinated approximately 29 million vaccine doses need to be administered while to reach 80% that number rises to 33 million doses. Australia is still over 17 million vaccine doses short of this mark and at the rate of 1 million vaccine doses a week will reach this level in late December.

“The highly contagious Delta variant is proving hard to trace and track with over 600 new cases announced in NSW today. The longer the lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne continue the more damage will be done to the Federal Government’s prospects of re-election in the first half of 2022.

“The present situation in both Sydney and Melbourne, and now Canberra, suggests these lockdowns will continue for many weeks, or even months while the vaccination rollout continues.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,747 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of August 7/8 & 14/15, 2021. A higher than usual 7.5% of electors (unchanged from early August) can’t say who they support.

For further information:

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–August 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.