Australian employment dropped by 176,000 in July as all five mainland States experienced lockdowns

Latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.42 million Australians were unemployed in July, up 28,000 on June, for an unemployment rate of 9.7% (up 0.3% points), while 1.33 million, up 77,000 on June, were under-employed, an under-employment rate of 9.1% (up 0.6% points).

• There were 13.2 million Australians employed in July, down 176,000 on June as all five mainland States experience lockdowns:
  
  Australian employment was down by 176,000 to 13,198,000 in July including 8,765,000 workers employed full-time, a drop of 61,000 from June. There was also a decrease in part-time employment, down by 115,000 to 4,433,000.

• Unemployment increased in July with more Australians looking for full-time work:
  
  1,422,000 Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce), up 28,000 from June. Driving the increase was more people looking for full-time work (up 49,000 to 619,000) while there were fewer people looking for part-time work (down 21,000 to 803,000).

• The workforce was at 14.62 million in July, down 148,000 from the record high in June:
  
  The workforce in July was 14,620,000 – comprised of 13,198,000 employed Australians (a drop of 176,000) and 1,422,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 28,000).

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – July 2021. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.7% for July is nearly 5% points higher than the current ABS estimate for June 2021 of 4.9%. However, the ABS figure for June counts as employed an additional 157,000 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘economic reasons’. If these non-workers are added back the ABS unemployment estimate for June increases to 836,000 (6.0%). The ABS also claims there are nearly 1.1 million Australians (7.9%) under-employed for a total of over 1.93 million unemployed or under-employed (14.0% of the workforce).

• Under-employment was up in July, highest since April 2021:

In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.33 million Australians (9.1% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, an increase of 77,000 (up 0.6% points) from June.
In total 2.76 million Australians (18.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July, an increase of 105,000 on June. The increase was driven by increases in both unemployment and under-employment.
Compared to February 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown was implemented, in July 2021 there were over 300,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+1.5% points) even though overall employment (13,198,000) is now higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,913,000).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the series of lockdowns around Australia over the past few months are creating headaches for many industries with an extended NSW lockdown, and multiple lockdowns in Victoria, Queensland and elsewhere to deal with:

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for July show unemployment up 0.3% points to 9.7% and under-employment up 0.6% points to 9.1%. This means a total of 2.76 million Australians (18.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July, the highest monthly figure since February 2021 (3.07 million, 21.0% of the workforce).
“The increases in both unemployment and under-employment in July are not surprising when one considers the number of lockdowns around Australia over the last few months. There have been three lockdowns of Victoria, two lockdowns in Queensland, a lockdown of South Australia, a lockdown of Greater Perth, a lockdown of Darwin and an extended lockdown in Greater Sydney which began in late June and is set to continue until at least the end of August.

“The multiple lockdowns are especially detrimental to travel and tourism industries and for those in the retail and hospitality sectors. Already Qantas has stood down 2,500 staff as hundreds of flights are cancelled due to the lockdowns and State border closures and the damage to the retail and hospitality sectors continues with trade disrupted and stores forced to close again.

“The renewed lockdowns in SE Queensland and Victoria, as well as the extended Greater Sydney lockdown, will cause more economic damage and higher unemployment and under-employment in August with more than half of the population now in lockdown. The contagiousness of the ‘Delta variant’ means these lockdowns could continue throughout August and beyond.“Nevertheless, the increasing support provided by Federal and State Governments to businesses and employees forced to deal with the lockdowns and border closures is having an impact. The July 2021 unemployment estimate of 9.7% is well down from July 2020 (12.5%) and during the remainder of 2020 unemployment only dipped below 12% once – after Victoria’s long second lockdown ended.
“Of course, the key to ending the lockdowns is a high enough vaccination coverage of the population to prevent the spread of COVID-19 getting out of control. The latest projections show Australia is not likely to reach the target of at least 70% of adults fully vaccinated until around the end of the year.
“The latest Health Department figures show 13 million vaccine doses have been administered to 42% of Australians aged 16+. To reach the threshold of 70% fully vaccinated approximately 29 million vaccine doses need to be administered. Australia is still around 16 million vaccine doses short of this mark and at the rate of 1 million vaccine doses a week will reach this level in early December.
“Until then, the next four months are set to be an unpredictable period for businesses with the chance of snap lockdowns ever-present. Just this week there has been a new outbreak of cases in Victoria and the State has been plunged into an unprecedented sixth lockdown.
“As lockdowns are now the preferred policy response of both the Federal & State Governments to deal with the highly contagious Delta variant it is imperative that both levels of Government are on the front foot to offer businesses impacted by these lockdowns all the support they require.
“Australia’s largely successful management of the COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the best in the world over the last 18 months and there is no point letting all the good work we’ve undertaken so far be undone by decisions made in the final months of the vaccination push.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 770,676 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and July 2021 and includes 5,992 telephone and online interviews in July 2021. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.

Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.

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Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – July 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – July 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – July 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.For comments or more information please contact:
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