ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 5.7pts to 104.3 – its lowest since early November 2020 as lockdown extended in Sydney and Melbourne goes into fifth lockdown
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunged 5.7pts to 104.3 this week after the Greater Sydney lockdown was extended until at least the end of July and Melbourne entered an unprecedented fifth lockdown late last week. Consumer Confidence is now sitting clearly below the 2021 weekly average of 110.9, however it is still 13.6 points higher than the same week a year ago, July 18/19, 2020 (90.7).
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunged 5.7pts to 104.3 this week after the Greater Sydney lockdown was extended until at least the end of July and Melbourne entered an unprecedented fifth lockdown late last week. Consumer Confidence is now sitting clearly below the 2021 weekly average of 110.9, however it is still 13.6 points higher than the same week a year ago, July 18/19, 2020 (90.7).
Consumer Confidence fell in both major cities this week, down 5.1pts (-4.8%) to 101.5 in Sydney and down 4.1pts (-3.7%) to 105.8 in Melbourne. Consumer Confidence also fell significantly in Adelaide and Perth, although was up slightly in Brisbane after that city emerged from lockdown two weeks ago.
The indices to drive Consumer Confidence lower this week were those related to the performance of the Australian economy over the next year and next five years and whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy major household items’ – not surprising given the closure of many retail stores in lockdown.
Current financial conditions
- Now 29% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 28% (up 1ppts), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- In addition, a plurality of 38% (down 1pt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 17% (up 3ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
Current economic conditions
- In a concerning development now less than a sixth of Australians, 15% (down 2ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months while nearly a quarter, 24% (up 6ppts), expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since late November 2020).
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, just under a fifth of Australians, 19% (down 2ppts), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (up 3ppts) expecting ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since early October 2020).
Time to buy a major household item
- The biggest driver of this week’s decline related to whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items with 36% (down 7ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 30% (up 6ppts) saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ – an overall swing of 13ppts and the worst result for this question since early November 2020.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
“Consumer confidence fell by 5.2% as the lockdown in Sydney was tightened and extended and another lockdown was imposed in Melbourne. Confidence actually dropped the most in Adelaide (-9.5%) and Perth (-8.2%) and was also down sharply in Sydney (-4.8%) and Melbourne (-3.7%). The subindices that capture economic conditions and ‘time to buy a major household item’ are at their worst levels since early November 2020, highlighting some renewed caution of households – albeit nowhere near the lows seen in the early stage of the pandemic. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations has been at or above the 4.0% mark for the past five weeks, cementing the return to pre- COVID levels.”
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
