ALP (50.5%) gains lead over L-NP (49.5%) on the back of strength in Victoria, Queensland & WA
In February, support for the ALP is 50.5% on a two-party preferred basis, up 1% point since November 2020 and now ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (down 1% point) according to the latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.
In February, support for the ALP is 50.5% on a two-party preferred basis, up 1% point since November 2020 and now ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (down 1% point) according to the latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.
If a Federal Election were held now it would be too close to call with a higher than usual 6.5% of electors undecided about who they would vote for and with the real possibility Australia would have a hung Parliament for the first time in nearly a decade. Normally around 3-4% of electors can’t say who they would vote for.
Interviewing for the latest Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of February 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,786 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).
Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP drops to 40%, ALP & Greens support increases
Primary support for the L-NP is now at 40% (down 2% points since November) compared to the ALP on 34.5% (up 0.5% points). Greens support has also increased and is now at 13% (up 1% point).
Support for One Nation is down 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others has increased 1% point to 9%.
Federal Voting Intention by State shows benefit of strong State Governments
Voting analysis by State shows the swing to the ALP is built on swings to the ALP since the last Federal Election in the three States with an ALP State Government – Victoria, Queensland and WA.
In Victoria the ALP now leads strongly on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, a swing of 1.9% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. There is one seat the L-NP holds in Victoria on a margin of less than 1.9% which is Chisholm (0.6%).
In Queensland the LNP is still in front on a two-party preferred basis but its lead has been significantly reduced: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48%, a swing of 6.4% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The LNP currently holds 23 out of 30 seats in Queensland compared to only 6 for the ALP.
The LNP holds five Queensland seats with a margin of less than 6.4% including Longman (3.3%), Leichhardt (4.2%), Dickson (4.6%), Brisbane (4.9%) and Ryan (6%).
In WA there has been a big swing with the ALP now marginally in front on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% - a swing of 6.1% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The Liberals currently hold 11 out of 16 seats in Western Australia compared to only 5 for the ALP.
The Liberals holds three Western Australian seats with a margin of less than 6.1% including Swan (2.7%), Hasluck (5.4%) and Stirling (5.6%).
In contrast there have been swings to the L-NP since the last Federal Election in the two mainland States with a Liberal Premier – New South Wales and South Australia.
In New South Wales there has been a swing of 2.2% to the L-NP who now lead L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46% on a two-party preferred basis. There are three seats in NSW that the ALP holds on a margin of less than 2.2% including Macquarie (0.2%), Eden-Monaro (0.4%) and Dobell (1.5%).
In South Australia there has been a swing of 1.2% to the L-NP who now lead L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis. There are no ALP seats in South Australia held by a margin of less than 1.2%.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence is down slightly since November
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 1pt from November 2020 to 123.5. Now 53.5% (down 1.5% points since November) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 30% (down 0.5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
There has been little change in the Government Confidence Ratings in the different States. The most notable move is a decline of 10.5pts to 135.5 in Western Australia – but still clearly the highest Government Confidence Rating of any State. Western Australians are in the midst of a State Election campaign with voters going to the polls on Saturday March 13, 2021.
The largest increase over the last three months has been in South Australia which now as a Government Confidence Rating of 123, up 5pts since November.
In the three largest States there has been little movement with the Government Confidence Rating down slightly in both Victoria, down 0.5pts to 125.5 and Queensland, down 1.5pts to 124.
The Government Confidence Rating in New South Wales increased by 0.5pts to 120.
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says if a Federal Election were held now the result would likely be a hung Parliament with the ALP governing in minority with the support of the Greens and left-leaning independents:
“Today’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP on 50.5% marginally in front of the L-NP on 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis in mid-February. The result is so close that were it to be repeated at a Federal Election the most likely result is a hung Parliament.
“An in-depth look at the trends in Australia’s key States shows the ALP gaining ground on a two-party preferred basis in Victoria (+1.9%), Queensland (+6.4%) and WA (+6.1%) since the last Federal Election. All three States have ALP State Governments and if these swings were repeated at a Federal Election the ALP would pick up five seats in Queensland, three seats in WA and one seat in Victoria.
“In contrast, there have been swings to the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis in both NSW (+2.2%) and SA (+1.2%). Both States have Liberal-led State Governments, however these swings would result in a pick-up of only three seats in NSW.
“The L-NP Federal Government currently has a narrow majority of only one seat in Parliament with 77 seats (including the Speaker) compared to the ALP on 68 seats and 6 seats held by minor parties and independents. On the floor of Parliament this translates into a 76-74 majority.
“If the State-based swings in this poll were repeated at a Federal Election the ALP would pick up a net of six seats in Parliament and lead to a hung Parliament with the ALP on 74 seats, L-NP on 71 seats and 6 seats held by minor parties and independents.
“In this scenario the ALP would be likely to form a minority government with the support of the Greens and left-leaning independents including Andrew Wilkie, Zali Steggal and Helen Haines.
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP Government risks losing an election because of sizeable swings against it in the ‘heartland’ States of Queensland and Western Australia. The ‘margin for error’ for Scott Morrison’s Government is small and there is every chance an ALP Government led by Anthony Albanese could secure a victory at an early Federal Election later this year.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,824 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of February 6/7 & 13/14, 2021. A higher than usual 6.5% of electors (down 0.5% from November) can’t say who they support.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
