Labour/Greens enjoy majority support of 54.5% of New Zealand electors as 2021 begins
The Labour/Greens government enjoys the support of 54.5% of New Zealand electors as 2021 begins, down 2% points since November. Although a clear majority of electors support the Labour/Greens alliance this is the lowest level of combined support for the two governing parties since March 2020. Support for the Labour Party is unchanged at 44% in December.
The Labour/Greens government enjoys the support of 54.5% of New Zealand electors as 2021 begins, down 2% points since November. Although a clear majority of electors support the Labour/Greens alliance this is the lowest level of combined support for the two governing parties since March 2020. Support for the Labour Party is unchanged at 44% in December.
Support for the main opposition National Party is up 2.5% points to 28%, while support for Act NZ is down slightly by 0.5% points to 10%. Support for the Maori Party is now up 1% point to 2%.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 939 electors during December. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3% didn’t name a party.
Support for Labour/Greens at 54.5% is well ahead of National/Act NZ/Maori Party on 40%
In December 54.5% of electors supported the Labour/Greens governing partnership, down 2% points since November. The governing parties were well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ/Maori Party on 40%, up 3% points since November.
A small minority of 5.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.
- Of the parties outside Parliament, The Opportunities Party (TOP) was unchanged at 2% in December and New Zealand First was up 0.5% points to 2%.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 4pts to 153.5 in December
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 4pts to 153.5 in December. The majority (71.5%) of New Zealand electors (up 2% since November) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 18% (down 2%) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s leadership and adept handling of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a resounding victory in the October election and has put New Zealand in prime position to reap the benefits of the global recovery:
“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s leadership and effective handling of the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 was the highlight of the year for New Zealand which closed its borders early on and has been virus-free for most of the second-half of the year.
“The exemplary response to COVID-19 led to a resounding victory for Prime Minister Ardern in October’s election and a second term for Labour in a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – even though Labour secured a majority of the vote and could have governed in its own right.
“Nevertheless, support for the Labour/Greens government is down 2% points to 54.5% in December with Labour support unchanged on 44% while Greens support dropped 2% points to 10.5%. The lead has narrowed to 14.5% over the Opposition National/Act NZ/Maori Party which has combined support of 40% and is the smallest lead for the Labour-led Government for a year since January 2020 (Labour-led Government 53% cf. National-led Opposition 43%).
“The New Year presents new challenges for the Ardern-led Government as New Zealand looks to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic even as many countries overseas are still grappling with the worst effects of the virus.
“Key issues include the roll-out of the vaccine to New Zealanders during the first half of 2021 as well as the potential full re-opening of borders with Australia to two-way travel – now dependent on Australia getting the latest outbreaks in NSW, Victoria and Queensland firmly under control.
“In addition, there are election commitments to provide more affordable housing, particularly in Auckland, and implement firm policies on Climate Change to reduce New Zealand’s net emissions of carbon dioxide to zero as soon as possible.”
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – December 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 923.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – December 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 923.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – December 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 923.
Voting Intention Summary
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:
|
PARTY VOTE |
Labour |
Green Party* |
National |
ACT NZ |
Maori Party** |
TOP** |
NZ First |
Other |
|
ELECTIONS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
October 12, 1996* |
28.19 |
10.10 |
33.87 |
6.10 |
n/a |
n/a |
13.35 |
8.39 |
|
November 27, 1999 |
38.74 |
5.16 |
30.50 |
7.04 |
n/a |
n/a |
4.26 |
14.30 |
|
July 27, 2002 |
41.26 |
7.00 |
20.93 |
7.14 |
n/a |
n/a |
10.38 |
13.29 |
|
September 17, 2005 |
41.10 |
5.30 |
39.10 |
1.51 |
2.12 |
n/a |
5.72 |
5.15 |
|
November 8, 2008 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
44.93 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
n/a |
4.07 |
4.25 |
|
November 26, 2011 |
27.48 |
11.06 |
47.31 |
1.07 |
1.43 |
n/a |
6.59 |
5.06 |
|
September 20, 2014 |
25.13 |
10.70 |
47.04 |
0.69 |
1.32 |
n/a |
8.66 |
6.46 |
|
September 23, 2017 |
36.89 |
6.27 |
44.45 |
0.50 |
1.18 |
2.44 |
7.20 |
1.07 |
|
October 17, 2020 |
50.01 |
7.86 |
25.58 |
7.59 |
1.17 |
1.51 |
2.60 |
3.70 |
|
ROY MORGAN POLL |
||||||||
|
March 2020 |
42.5 |
11.5 |
37 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
April 2020 |
55 |
7 |
30.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 2020 |
56.5 |
7 |
26.5 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
June 2020 |
54.5 |
9 |
27 |
5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 2020 |
53.5 |
8 |
26.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
|
August 2020 |
48 |
11.5 |
28.5 |
6 |
0.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
September 2020 |
47.5 |
9.5 |
28.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
|
NZ Election 2020 |
50 |
7.9 |
25.6 |
7.6 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
|
November 2020 |
44 |
12.5 |
25.5 |
10.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
December 2020 |
44 |
10.5 |
28 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1.5 |
*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.
Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties
|
Labour Party-led Government (Labour, Greens) |
Parliamentary |
|
|
2020 |
||
|
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* |
57.87 |
34.33 |
|
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL |
||
|
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament, signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020 |
||
|
November 2020 |
56.5 |
37 |
|
December 2020 |
54.5 |
40 |
*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
